News, views and commentary from the telecoms sector across emerging markets and developing countries worldwide
Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts

Tuesday, 16 June 2009

Azerbaijan: as the Ministry pushes 3G licences, the market is eyed by giant Russian cellco

It's time to take a break from writing about the rumoured sales of Zain's African assets to Vivendi (or whichever potential buyer is the flavour of the day), although I daresay there will be cause to return to that theme before too long.

Instead, I wanted to take the opportunity to take a look at a part of the world about which I got to learn a little while producing three annual iterations of a conference for telecoms execs from the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia and the Caspian region. One of these countries, Azerbaijan, is, according to recent local reports, moving closer to making 3G mobile licence awards, with the the Ministry of Communications and Information Technologies planning to distribute spectrum by the end of this year.

This is apparently not the Ministry's first attempt to bring 3G services to Azeris. According to a brief TeleGeography report, the MCIT submitted a 3G frequency use proposal to the country's cellcos in July 2008, "but few developments have emerged since."

Now, according the the Minister, Ali Abbasov, all the three of the country's GSM operators have already applied to the Ministry for 3G licences. These three operators are: Azercell, Bakcell and AzerFon (brand name: Nar Mobile), with market shares of 58.66%, 22.29% and 18.00% respectively as of March 2009, according to WCIS. A fourth player, CDMA operator CATEL/FONEX has just over one per cent of the country's mobile subs.

Given that oil-rich Azerbaijan is potentially quite an attractive market, it is striking that only one of these operators is associated with a significant multi-country group - market-leading Azercell is controlled by Fintur Holdings, a joint venture between giant Scandinavian telco TeliaSonera and Turkey's Turkcell. Fintur Holdings, via a mix of majority stakes and management control arrangements, is also active in Kazakhstan, Moldova, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Cambodia and Nepal.

Strikingly absent from the Azeri market are big Russian cellcos, two of which, Vimpelcom and MTS, have each built a multi-country footprint across other parts of the former Soviet Union. This may be set to change, if recent comments from the latter company's CEO are interpreted as representing a firm commitment to further international expansion.

Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the of the St Petersburg Economic Forum earlier this month, MTS CEO Mikhail Shamolin said "there are two countries (where) we are not present yet and I believe we should be present... Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan."

Shamolin added that MTS is not thinking in terms of start-up operations in either country, which seems sensible given that mobile penetration in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan stand at 71.11% and 93.81% respectively according to WCIS. "We are looking at acquisition opportunities there," said Shamolin. "We are waiting until the right time comes. When this opportunity shows up then we will consider it carefully." He added that the company was not holding specific talks with any Kazakh or Azeri firms.

In Azerbaijan, you would have to guess that TeliaSonera and Turkcell will look to hold on to their market-leading MNO. So let's see which of Bakcell or Nar Mobile might be targeted for an MTS takeover.
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Tuesday, 5 May 2009

Russian cellco happy to do business in Georgia's disputed regions

Today's Guardian newspaper carries news of the Tbilisi Government denouncing an army mutiny as a "Russian-backed attempted coup". While the Russian Government has yet to respond, "the Kremlin has frequently rubbished claims of agreements between its special forces and Georgian elements hostile to Saakashvili's government", states the article. Even from within Georgia, there are those who are not inclined to believe today's claims, which were articulated to Reuters by the country's defence mininster David Sikharulidze. Georgia's former defence minister, Giya Karkarashvili, does not believe these claimes, telling reporters in Tbilisi he was sceptical of claims of a planned coup attempt, suggesting they were fabricated by the government to dampen opposition.

Clearly, the tensions which sparked last August's conflict in South Ossetia remain unresolved. In March, I reflected here on how this impacts the telecommunications industry in Georgia, as part of a longer piece on telecoms service provision in the world's various unrecognised states, disputed territories and breakaway republics.

In that entry, I noted that Russian cello MegaFon has attracted criticism in some circles for, as UK lawyer Anthony Julius alleges, operating in South Ossetia since 2004, and in Abkhazia since 2003 without "a licence to operate in either region".

Recent news suggests that MegaFon is not uncomfortable working in these regions, both of which are recognised by the vast majority of UN member states as integral parts of the territory of Georgia.

Last Monday (27th April), Telegeography carried news of the Russian MNO completing the purchases of Aquafon and Ostelecom, two mobile network operators in Abkhazia and South Ossetia respectively. The article provides a useful recap of MegaFon's recent activities in these territories:
  • The GNCC (Georgia's telecoms regulator) won a claim that before the August conflict operations controlled by MegaFon covered only part of the former Autonomous Republic of South Ossetia, but that in August the operator unlawfully expanded its coverage area and exceeded the conflict zone to include the regions of Gori and Kareli.
  • In October 2008 the Administrative Panel of the Tblisi City Court rejected MegaFon’s appeal against the GNCC's ruling on the Russian's cellcos "unlicensed use of radio frequency spectrum within Georgia's sovereign territory".
  • In December 2008 CommsUpdate reported that the same court turned down a secondary appeal by MegaFon seeking the dismissal of a USD360,000 fine imposed by the Georgian National Communications Commission (GNCC) for operating without a licence in South Ossetia.
MegaFon's recent purchases suggest the company is unconcerned by these problems. The operator may be buoyed by news of recent news of profits rising by 37.2% in Q4 2008.

According to a recent Cellular News article, sales rose by 25%, EBITDA rose 28.5% and the margin rose to 50.8 percent from 49.4 percent a year ago. CEO Sergei Soldatenkov cites cost savings as key: "We have thoroughly managed the structure of our expenditures in response to the slowdown in economic growth." CAPEX will be cut from USD2.2 billion in 2008 to around USD1 billion this year, according to the article.
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Sunday, 15 March 2009

Who provides telecoms services in states with limited recognition?

Late last year, I had more than one opportunity to chat with friends in the telecoms space who have worked for businesses with operations in Georgia - the transcaucasian country, not the US state. Inevitably, the subject of the August armed conflict with Russia and with separatist groups from South Ossetia and Abkhazia was discussed. I did not hear reports of very serious damage to telecoms infrastructure. This is confirmed by an extract from a statement by a shareholder in Magticom, one of the two mobile operators licensed by the Tbilisi Government:

"Magticom started the year with a strong performance compared to budget and last year. The conflict with Russia during August caused some damage both to the Georgian economy and to future economic prospects. The full effects of the conflict are yet to be determined. Magticom's physical infrastructure, however, was not badly damaged bythe conflict."

Magticom, which had a 42.28% share of Georgia's 3,352,100 mobile subscriptions by December(according to WCIS), launched a CDMA450 WLL network last summer. According to my fomer Informa Telecoms & Media colleague Gemma Bunting, writing for Mobile Communications Europe, Magti Fix is primarily aimed at people in rural areas with poor fixed-line access. As Gemma noted in her article, Magticom is also active 2G and 3G mobile services as well as Internet access via Wi-Fi and WiMAX.

The Magticom WiMAX offering caught the eye of Andrew Mitchell, writing for for Yankee Group's 4G Trends next generation wireless publication last month. Mitchell noticed Magticom's launch of a mobile WiMAX service offering on February 9, quoting the company's CEO David Lee: "The service we are launching is not only the country’s first WiMAX offering but also the fastest Internet connection available in Georgia to date." The carrier will deliver mobile WiMAX services to both consumer and business markets and plans to include VoIP as well, notes Andrew Mitchell, who also observes that offering wireless connectivity in a country like Georgia presents a number of unique challenges such as mountainous geography and the distribution of its population. Mitchell feels that WiMAX "has continually demonstrated an ability to rise to the engineering and business challenges that are unique to emerging markets."

As far as the Georgian Government is concerned, Magticom should be competing with only two other mobile operators. Of these, Geocell is the country's mobile market leader and is one of the CIS outposts of the Fintur Holdings/TeliaSonera Eurasia empire. The third officially licensed competitor is the Georgian subsidiary of Vimpelcom, which has managed to grab just a 6.78% share of the market since its launch in March 2007.

These are not, however, the only mobile operators active on land which the Georgian Government considers to be within its sovereign territory.

In the aftermath of the August conflict, Russia recognized the Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Of UN member states, only Nicaragua has followed suit. Abkhazia, which lies at the eastern edge of the Black Sea, has been the scene of conflicts and tensions since the disintegration of the Soviet Union at the end of the 1980s, when ethnic tensions grew between the Abkhaz and Georgians over Georgia's desire for independence. The 13-month Abkhazian War began in August 1992, and hostilities flared up again in 1998 and 2001.

In the telecoms domain, Abkhazian desire for independence from Georgia is manifested in the form of two GSM operators which offer services in the disputed region.

One of these is A-Mobile, which started its operations on November 25, 2006. WCIS estimates that the operator now has just over 44,000 subscribers. The other, Aquafon, was established in March 2003, with its network becoming operational on July of the same year. WCIS market intelligence indicates that the operator now has around 82,000 subscribers. The population of Abkhazia is estimated to be be somewhere between 160,000 and 190,000. In September 2008, Aquafon officially launched its 3G network. 51% of Aquafon's shares are owned by Mondeo Holdings, an offshore company based in the British Virgin Islands, in turn owned Bermuda-registered ComTel Eastern, which also owns 31% of MegaFon, one of Russia's 'big three' cellcos.

On January 23rd, the UK's Guardian newspaper gave space to an article which was extremely critical of what its author percieves as the Russian Government's desire to "revive a lost empire, the Soviet Union." The writer of this piece, the lawyer Anthony Julius, alleges that "Russian businesses have... been encouraged to collude with state and state-security entities in order to expand Russian influence in the region," adding that "the Russian mobile telecoms company Megafon has operated in South Ossetia since 2004, and Aquafon (Megafon's subsidiary) has been in Abkhazia since 2003." Megafon, writes Julius "does not have a licence to operate in either region [but] on the day that fighting broke out in August last year, the company extended its coverage further into Georgian territory."

Not long before the conflict of last August, Georgia's telecoms regulatory agency had fined Megafon USD 3500 over what it alleged to be an illegal network, operated without a license, according to a Global Mobile Daily article at the time.

Although Russia and Nicaragua are the only UN member states to have recognised Abkhazia and South Ossetia, these two regions are also recognised by the de facto independent state of Transnistria, another disputed area within the former Soviet Union. Located mostly in a strip of land between the Dniester River and the Ukrainian border, Transnistria declared independence after the dissolution of the USSR. This led to a brief war with Moldova that started in March 1992 and was concluded by the ceasefire of July 1992. As with Abkhazkia, Transnistria is home to a telecoms operator of its own. Interdniestrcom, founded in 1998, offers Internet access and operates a CDMA2000 mobile network whose coverage area includes almost all of the Transnistria region.

Another de facto independent state on former Soviet territory is the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, a predominantly Armenian-populated region which was the object of a dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan as far back as 1918, when both countries gained independence from the Russian Empire. In the final years of the Soviet Union, the region re-emerged as a source of dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, culminating in the Nagorno-Karabakh War fought from 1988 to 1994. The country remains unrecognised by any international organization or country, including Armenia.

Again, this is a de facto state served by its own telecoms company. Karabakh Telecom offers GSM mobile services, PSTN services and Internet access, covering 75% of Nagorno-Karabakh and almost 100% of the capital Stepanakert and its suburbs.

In Africa, one state stands out for existing largely in a de jure capacity. Somalia has a weak but largely recognised central government authority, the Transitional Federal Government, but this is only the latest in a series of ineffectual, externally recognized governing authorities. De facto control of the north of the country resides in the regional authorities. Of these, Puntland, Northland State, Maakhir, Galmudug, acknowledge the authority of the TFG and maintain their declaration of autonomy within a federated Somalia, while Central, Southern Somalia and Kismayo are in the control of the Islamic Courts Union and Al-Shabab. Baidoa is currently the seat of the TFG, and Somalia's commercial centre. On the other hand, the Somaliland region in the north, with its capital in Hargeisa, has declared independence and does not recognise the TFG as governing authority. Its self-declared independence is unrecognised internationally due in part to opposition from the TFG and other countries, such as neighbouring Ethiopia, which fear ensuing secessionist movements.

Golis Telecom Somalia operates in North East Somalia, offering fixed and mobile services in both Puntland and the self-declared independent state of Somaliland.

I daresay this is not a truly exhaustive tour of telcos operating in states with varying degrees of limited diplomatic recognition. I just wanted to explore briefly the question of who extends communications services to people who live in the world's disputed territories. I enjoyed meandering around these curious places and if anyone reading this found it interesting that's even better.
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