tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-90367567028907712262024-03-10T02:46:24.767+00:00Developing Telecoms WatchDiscussing telecoms sector news from emerging markets worldwideDevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.comBlogger157125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-90486919076659335352010-07-09T14:23:00.000+01:002010-07-09T14:23:11.660+01:00GoodbyeI am no longer working in a telecoms sector role and have therefore decided to cease updating this blog. Thanks to all who visited here and found it useful, and to the various advertisers and media partners with whom I had the pleasure of doing business.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-44031026713245597272010-05-21T14:10:00.002+01:002010-05-21T15:17:17.805+01:00Vodafone to quit Egypt?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://drjamesgalyon.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/egypt_flag.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://drjamesgalyon.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/egypt_flag.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>This blog is (usually) written on a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great%20Britain" id="aptureLink_rTT3aoN7Gl">Sceptred Isle</a> whose citizens (subjects) are currently wondering what life is going to be like under a newly cobbled-together <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8676607.stm" id="aptureLink_ZYWv1w17ul">coalition government</a>. This is rather a novel state of affairs because the our electoral system is carefully <strike>rigged</strike> designed to crown a decisive winner and deliver the 'strong government' we Brits are supposed to favour. Usually this works out fine, with a healthy majority and almost unchecked power conferred upon the winners. There's never even been the need for those 'winners' to command a majority share of the votes cast, much less the support of a majority of those eligible to vote.<br />
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During its election campaign, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative%20Party%20%28UK%29" id="aptureLink_n08AH7Ikvi">senior partner</a> in the new government issued dire warnings about the terrible consequences should the voters be unwise enough to elect a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hung%20parliament" id="aptureLink_Og6suXvHpj">hung parliament</a>. The markets, we were warned, would respond unfavourably, leaving our fragile economic recovery exposed to the fall out of their nervousness.<br />
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Perhaps this was not too far wide of the mark. The markets continue to be volatile in the early days of this new administration, with Nick Fletcher of the <i>Guardian</i> reporting <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2010/may/21/vodafonegroup-royalbankofscotlandgroup" id="aptureLink_kRUrskAKwP">another bumpy week of trading</a>.<br />
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Bucking the current downward trend, however, writes Fletcher, is mobile behemoth <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone" id="aptureLink_T0ZbLuK0aq">Vodafone.</a> <br />
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"The mobile phone group has had a busy week", observes Fletcher, winning an Indian 3G licence... and reporting <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/18/vodafone-mobile-phones-india" id="aptureLink_D9Uy10lyt3">a doubling of annual profits</a>. Today, Fletcher reports, its shares have jumped 2p to 131.45p, making it the biggest riser in a falling FTSE, following reports it plans to sell its 55% stake in its <a href="http://www.vodafone.com.eg/" id="aptureLink_uNjiQmaIoV">Egyptian business</a>.<br />
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One such report, <a href="http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=33180&email=html" id="aptureLink_KlpU6Z1P8k">from TeleGeography</a>, suggests that the buyer of Vodafone's controlling stake in the Egyptian MNO may be incumbent wireline operator <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecom%20Egypt" id="aptureLink_B3euuWEhIT">Telecom Egypt</a>, already the owner of the other 45% of the business. <br />
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The article also suggests that if no agreement can be reached between Vodafone and Telecom Egypt, the fixed-line operator may seek another route into the domestic mobile sector, perhaps trying to secure its own wireless licence, should the government, as rumoured, offer a fourth mobile concession in the future.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-43767128493075194362010-05-21T10:49:00.098+01:002010-05-21T11:29:17.886+01:00India's cellcos to balk at mandatory switch to solar-powered equipment?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.constructionweekonline.in/pictures/Solar%20panels.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="http://www.constructionweekonline.in/pictures/Solar%20panels.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;"><i>Solar power: mandatory for India's cellcos?</i></span></div><br />
The green credentials of <i>DevelopingTelecomsWatch</i> are pretty weak - this blog has never dedicated an entire article specifically to an examination of the environmental impact of telecoms technology.<br />
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Moreover, the only time DTW has discussed 'green' technologies at length, when <a href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/04/answer-my-friend-is-blowing-in-wind.html" id="aptureLink_c0cGNGwHI9">wind and solar-powered mobile base stations were evaulated more than a year ago</a>, the focus was mainly on cost benefits for operators. Just a cursory mention was made how such solutions compare favourably - in terms of environmental impact - to diesel-powered generators in the vast numbers of sites where electricty distribution infrastructure is inadequate across developing countries.<br />
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Even in terms of the narrower arguments about cost control, last April's article was by no means constructed entirely of fulsome praise for wind-powered and solar-powered mobile network infrastructure. It was noted that while running costs can, of course, look very attractive, the costs of investing in new solar panels and wind turbines themselves are not trivial. DTW also reported concerns on the part of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSM%20Association" id="aptureLink_0m3oYuvnSp">GSM Association</a> about the results of trials of sun and wind-powered base stations.<br />
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Mobile operators, then, mindful of these questions, could presumably be resistant to any attempt to make reliance on these green technologies mandatory.<br />
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This is precisely the situation which could be facing cellcos in India.<br />
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<a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/telecom/Tele-towers-face-switch-to-solar-power-for-back-ups/articleshow/5938457.cm" id="aptureLink_xqaM2WPnDS">Writing for India's <i>Economic Times</i> earlier this month</a>, Subhash Narayan asserts that the country's government "may ask telecom companies to install solar panels to generate backup power for cellphone towers, a move that could hurt the sector already troubled by a squeeze in margins."<br />
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A proposal being finalised by the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry%20of%20New%20and%20Renewable%20Energy" id="aptureLink_87mXeFBWoF">Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE)</a>, writes Narayan, "is aimed at containing the use of polluting diesel gensets to provide back-up power" and "could increase the cost of network expansion significantly" <br />
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"The green drive will prevent these engines of development (telecom towers) from becoming grave environmental hazards," said an official with MNRE. "We are discussing the proposal with various stakeholders. A cabinet note is proposed to be finalised thereafter to get the clearance for the scheme," the official said, requesting anonymity <br />
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Predicatably, the industry response, as reported by Narayan of the <i>Economic Times</i>, is not terrible enthusiatic. "This could significantly impact the margins of companies already under pressure due to rising spectrum cost and the cut-throat competition in the sector," said 'an executive with a large private telco'. <br />
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Narayan asserts that the Indian government is not keen on providing any subsidy for solar power equipment, but says it could offer them soft loans under refinancing schemes of <a href="http://ireda.gov.in/" id="aptureLink_ZIhhNZcyMu">Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency</a>. <br />
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This skepticism from India notwithstanding, one can still find evidence of cellcos in developing countries going down the green power route. Chinese vendor, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZTE" id="aptureLink_UXDH90rKmy">ZTE</a>, for example, <a href="http://wwwen.zte.com.cn/endata/magazine/ztetechnologies/2010/no5/articles/201005/t20100510_184435.html" id="aptureLink_1mxu9f0FId">seems</a> to have encouraged <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MTN%20Group" id="aptureLink_WL0o0t0lLj">MTN</a>'s <a href="http://www.mtncameroon.net/LoadedPortal" id="aptureLink_cRHRPRNUmk">Cameroonian opco</a> to take delivery of an unspecified number of solar-powered base stations.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-4513982552491560362010-05-06T16:29:00.012+01:002010-05-07T10:34:09.376+01:00Afrique Occidentale & Centrale Com: De retour au Sénégal par demande générale<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.alphadinar.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Kharafi-Zain-Bharti-Signature.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://www.alphadinar.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Kharafi-Zain-Bharti-Signature.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #741b47; font-size: x-small;"><i>The Zain-Bharti transaction: How will West African mobile markets be affected? </i></span></div><br />
<i>Mais non!</i> <i>DevelopingTelecomsWatch</i> has not become a francophone blog. The frenchified title of today's offering is in honour of the fact that a noted West African telecoms conference is, after two years in Nigeria, to be hosted in Senegal in June. <br />
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Geopolitically, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West%20Africa" id="aptureLink_2j4dCnS1T8">West Africa</a> is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subregion#United_Nations_subregions" id="aptureLink_9oJ9DpCSTw">defined by the UN</a> as consisting of: Benin, Burkina Faso, <span lang="fr" xml:lang="fr">Côte d'Ivoire</span><span lang="fr" xml:lang="fr">, </span><span lang="fr" xml:lang="fr">Cape Verde, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. Of these, just four are countries where English is an official language. Of the others, two are </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lusophone" id="aptureLink_9uDXe8uU32">Lusophone</a><span lang="fr" xml:lang="fr"> states and ten are French-speaking.</span><br />
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<span lang="fr" xml:lang="fr">The organisers of the aforementioned conference have found that this linguistic diversity in the region creates certain challenges for them. Nigeria, as by far the largest market in West Africa, seemed to be the logical place in which to host the event for the last couple of years. Certainly, relocating the conference to Abuja (from its previous venue of Dakar, Senegal) two years ago paid tremendous dividends in terms of boosted attendance numbers and a good buzz of activity at the 2008 and 2009 iterations of the gathering. This was achieved, however, at the cost of making the event a tad less attractive for delegates from the numerous French-speaking markets. This effect was somewhat mitigated by ensuring that simultaneous English-French translation was available during all conference sessions, but perhaps not as much as was hoped given that this year </span><a href="http://www.informatm.com/" id="aptureLink_zy1ztFeuCJ">Informa Telecoms & Media</a><span lang="fr" xml:lang="fr"> have moved the show back to Dakar again.</span><br />
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<span lang="fr" xml:lang="fr">Given that delegates from telecoms operators attend for free, Informa monetises its </span><a href="http://www.comworldseries.com/" id="aptureLink_ziU6fYo9dL">Com World Series</a><span lang="fr" xml:lang="fr"> events (of which </span><a href="http://wcafrica.comworldseries.com/" id="aptureLink_lhFpnOYfpS">West & Central Africa Com</a><span lang="fr" xml:lang="fr"> is one) largely by selling sponsorship packages and exhibition space to the telecoms technology vendors that do business with those operators. These vendors will doubtless remain keen on the potential of the large (and fragmented) Nigerian telecoms market and might be concerned about not having a good tradeshow route-to-market to address this now the conference has headed back to Dakar.</span><br />
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With this in mind, I guess, Informa are also running <a href="http://www.comworldseries.com/nigeria" id="aptureLink_YMhh6NKVrb">a specifically Nigerian event in Lagos this year</a>. This will make its debut in September.<br />
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In the meantime, what can we expect to be discussed at the Dakar gathering?<br />
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I guess one hot topic - addressed via offline chitchat if not via presentations and panel discussions - will be the effect of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zain" id="aptureLink_9jS6T1TVv3">Zain</a>'s withdrawal from the region. The Kuwaiti group currently controls opcos in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger, Nigeria and Sierra Leone - as well as others in markets elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. As discussed <i>ad nauseum</i> in DTW posts <i>passim</i>., all of these <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62Q0IY20100327?rpc=21" id="aptureLink_e77h38qEA4">are now set to be in the hands</a> of giant Indian cellco <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharti%20Airtel" id="aptureLink_BzFgFQL213">Bharti Airtel</a>. DTW's <a href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2010/04/india-operator-space-to-consolidate.html" id="aptureLink_OXXBuM4ljX">most recent article</a>, mainly a brief exploration of whether India's mobile market is set to consolidate, did a little to talk up the ways in which Bharti Airtel might be able to reinvent Zain Africa by introducing the low-cost business model which it has empoyed on home turf. So let's see how much tougher sub-Saharan markets are set to become for Zain/Bharti's competitors.<br />
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This acquistion, however, may yet take a little while longer to conclude. One reason for this could be resistance from the governments of the countries in which the Zain-owned opcos are set to change hands. That said, there have been recent signs of these obstacles being overcome.<br />
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Back in March, for example, <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/telecom/Government-of-Gabon-disapproves-of-Zain-sale-to-Bharti-/articleshow/5739541.cms" id="aptureLink_8CB9pq2E4w">as reported</a> by India's <i>Economic Times</i>, the Government of Gabon said it "disapproves" of the sale of Zain's Gabonese assets to Bharti Airtel and reserves the right to take "all necessary measures". Late last week, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE63T05K20100430?rpc=21" id="aptureLink_jUqSiTI3jY">Reuters was reporting</a> that this objection had been resolved.<br />
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It will be interesting, then, to see how long it takes to deal with any further problems of this kind. If the difficulties do continue into June, it should be interesting to connect with Tiemoko Coulibaly, Vice President of Zain's Western Africa operations at West & Central Africa Com in Dakar.<br />
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There will be many other reasons to attend the event - but connecting with the likes of Mr Coulibaly could be motivation enough for anyone who does business with Zain in Africa and now needs to keep on top of how the change of ownership is set to change the game.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-15174340655811810502010-04-22T17:04:00.005+01:002010-04-22T20:17:13.256+01:00India: operator space to consolidate while handset market gets more fragmented?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.fonearena.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/MartenPietersMDCEOVodafoneEssarIndia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="http://www.fonearena.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/MartenPietersMDCEOVodafoneEssarIndia.jpg" width="305" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i style="color: #cc0000;">Maarten Pieters: Vodafone India CEO predicts market consolidation </i></span></div><br />
Last week, a broad range of news outlets were carrying the claim that just 31% of the population of India were known to have access to a toilet and 'improved sanitation' in 2008. This is clearly a regrettable state of affairs, with dire consequences for public health, life expectancy and economic development.<br />
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Ordinarily, however, it does not follow that the seriousness of an issue always correlates strongly with the willingness of the global media to give it coverage. It was a welcome surprise, then, to see this particular issue <a href="http://www.metro.co.uk/news/world/821774-india-has-more-mobile-phones-than-toilets-according-to-report" id="aptureLink_ORahaqpQ5V">given some space</a> even by the website of the <a href="http://www.metro.co.uk/" id="aptureLink_E7Uq23HAh1">thin, brightly coloured newspaper</a> given free at UK railway stations to daily commuters such as myself. After all, this is an organ whose print version dedicates just a few pages to what I would really call 'news' - far more space is given over to celebrity tittletattle and TV listings.<br />
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How, then, did this story successfully compete for space even in that kind of context?<br />
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The key seems to have been handing the global media an compelling, ready-written headline. The person responsible for doing so in this case appears to be <a href="http://update.unu.edu/archive/issue25_3.htm%20-%20Zafar%20Adeel%20bio" id="aptureLink_SDdp0oHmnG">Zafar Adeel</a>, Director of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United%20Nations%20University" id="aptureLink_MhPdbde71a">United Nations University</a>’s Canada-based think-tank, the <a href="http://www.inweh.unu.edu/" id="aptureLink_56UxozqtXQ">Institute for Water, Environment and Health</a>.<br />
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So how did Dr. Adeel manage to craft a headline sufficiently eye-catching so as to propel this important but unglamorous issue up the news agenda last week? He did so by building it around <a href="http://www.inweh.unu.edu/News/2010-04_UNU-INWEH_News-Release_Sanitation.pdf" id="aptureLink_hWdJfms8kA">the assertion</a> that more Indians have access to a mobile phone than to a working toilet. Presumably, the desired effect on readers in Europe and North America was to stimulate a thought process along the following lines: <i>'More cellphones than toilets? That's </i>crazy<i>! Toilets have been around forever and are one of the most basic facilities expected for a civilised life - but the mobile phone is a recently invented luxury item.'</i><br />
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Such a characterisation of the mobile device would be understandable when articulated by someone who ticks the following boxes:<br />
<ul><li>lives in a wealthy, developed country and has not had the opportunity to see mobile phones being used on the city streets or in the villages of (for example) Kenya, India or Bangladesh</li>
<li>is old enough to remember when mobile phones were seen as an expensive status symbol used only by wealthy executives</li>
<li>has not thought about how access to communications services can improve the lives of poor people by connecting them with time-saving information and services</li>
</ul>Regular readers of this blog, and anyone working in or around the telecoms sector in emerging markets/developing countries, however, would be much less likely to think of mobile phones in this way. They would probably be inclined to realise that is precisely <i>because</i> developing countries have weak infrastructure that the mobile phone has rapidly become a truly vital part of the lives of even very poor people in such nations. Numerous examples of this have been decribed in DTW posts <i>passim</i>. Rather than trawl through all of those, readers might like to look at a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/weekinreview/11giridharadas.html?pagewanted=2" id="aptureLink_zX9xW8BnbY">nicely succinct round up</a> of observations on this topic, made recently Anand Giridharadas, writing for the <i>New York Times</i>.<br />
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Giridharadas observes that there is "a global flowering of innovation on the simple cellphone" and that "from Brazil to India to South Korea and even Afghanistan, people are seeking work via text message; borrowing, lending, and receiving salaries on cellphones; employing their phones as flashlights, televisions and radios." He goes on to assert that "many do all this for peanuts", noting that "in India, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliance%20Communications" id="aptureLink_FXXdn893TQ">Reliance Communications</a> sells handsets for less than [USD] 25, with one-cent-a-minute phone calls across India and one-cent text messages and no monthly charge — while earning fat profits."<br />
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Readers of this blog, particularly any working in India's mobile sector, might on one hand take pride in seeing such achievements talked up but may, on the other hand, not fully recognise the idea of an industry revelling in 'fat' profits.<br />
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Certainly, the feeling in India may be that at the very low tariff levels referred to by Giridharadas, not all operators may continue to be viable. Sypmathetic to this view is <a href="http://www.vodafone.com/start/about_vodafone/who_we_are/subsidiary_operations/marten_pieters.html" id="aptureLink_alZcxWHrak">Maarten Pieters</a>, CEO Of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone%20Essar" id="aptureLink_di55xas0EZ">Vodafone India</a>. <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/Indian-telecom-industry-needs-consolidation-Vodafone-MD/articleshow/5804152.cms" id="aptureLink_7CFl1VRACn">Speaking to the <i>Economic Times</i> last week</a>, Pieters observed: "It’s all about scale because we have very low tariffs here. If you compared the tariffs here, it’s about 10% or what we get in Europe in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone" id="aptureLink_HqLybJExJn">Vodafone</a> Group as an average tariff. So, how can you survive as an operator on those low tariffs that is by creating scale and it is very clear that it will not be able for 10 people or 10 operators to create that scale, which means there needs to be some form of consolidation".<br />
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Pieters does not expect this consolidation of the mobile market to happen overnight, however, because it would not be facilitated by India's current M&A rules. "So, we first need to see some changes of the rules and then you will probably see consolidation."<br />
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Indian mobile operators, then, have to strive for profitability in an extremely tough environment. Quite often, I have heard industry watchers articulate the view that this should equip the country's cellcos very well for meeting the challenges of extracting a profit from developing countries elsewhere in the world. Also out there is the feeling that any Indian MNOs with international ambitions will need to be mindful of quite different challenges they may face.<br />
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<a href="http://www.telecoms.com/19363/bharti-books-its-passage-to-africa/" id="aptureLink_AgNSMArWsd">Writing last month</a> for <a href="http://www.telecoms.com/" id="aptureLink_1CwhMXZ8y3">telecoms.com</a> about the purchase of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zain" id="aptureLink_LRcyKUVeol">Zain</a>'s African opcos by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharti%20Airtel" id="aptureLink_lvmeJ16Bti">Bharti Airtel</a>, for example, Matthew Reed observes that "Bharti will be looking to reinvent Zain Africa by introducing the low-cost business model that it has pioneered successfully in India" and "will also be hoping to achieve economies of scale across its Asian and African operations, which together will make it the fifth-largest mobile operator in the world". <br />
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Reed does offer words of caution, however, arguing that "operating in Africa does present particular challenges, some of which will be new to Bharti, despite its credentials as an emerging-market operator."<br />
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"The takeover of Zain Africa", writes Reed, "will give Bharti operations in 15 different countries, each of which has its own political and regulatory conditions, and some of which present some political risk. The diversity alone will be something new for Bharti, which only had mobile operations in India until it made recent moves into Sri Lanka and Bangladesh."<br />
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Reed also observes that while tariffs in Africa have traditonally been rather higher than those Bharti Airtel has to live with on home soil, the giant Indian cellco is entering many African markets at a time when higher levels of competition have more recently been pushing down prices. "In much of sub-Saharan Africa", Reed adds, "the infrastructure is poor and distribution is difficult."<br />
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Maarten Pieters of Vodafone India, meanwhile, is almost uniquely well qualified to make predictions about how his company's major competitor is likely to fare as it embarks on its African adventure - between 2003 and 2005, he was the CEO of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celtel" id="aptureLink_hIHghdf9KD">Celtel International</a>, the collection of African operators acquired by Zain and subsequently sold on to Bharti Airtel. Pieters has also served on the board of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millicom" id="aptureLink_EAcm59WIja">Millicom International Cellular</a>, the multinational mobile group whose African assets currently include opcos in Chad, DRC, Ghana, Mauritius, Rwanda, Senegal and Tanzania.<br />
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Pieters offers words of encouragement: "Bharti is a very fantastic company. I really admire them. They have done a very good job in India. They have a very good management. If anyone can make a success out of the old Celtel assets, then it’s them. So, I am very happy that they are in good hands."<br />
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While, as Pieters argues, consolidation of the Indian mobile operator space may be inevitable, the handset market, conversely, seems to be becoming more fragmented. Priyanka Joshi of the <i>Business Standard</i> <a href="http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/handset-manufacturers-flood-indian-market/391912/" id="aptureLink_1Hpjw2DI7H">writes</a> that "the segment has seen entry of one mobile vendor every month." For the year 2009, Joshi asserts, "new vendors registered a combined market share of 12.3% of the total 101.54 million mobile handset sales."<br />
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Examples of new market entrants offered by Joshi include <a href="http://www.wynntelecom.com/" id="aptureLink_oYtd3C8q63">Wynn Telecom</a>. "Starting May this year, writes Joshi, "the company will launch seven dual SIM handsets priced under Rs 5000 and will also get ready to manufacture handsets in India."<br />
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Some new entrants, explains Joshi, will build a business around devices tailored to meet the needs of users in India's vast rural areas. Olive Telecommunications is one example of a company with this strategy.<br />
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It will be interesting to observe, then, whether the mobile services and mobile handsets markets do indeed move in these opposite directions - with the former consolidating down to a smaller number of operators of scale and the latter continuing to offer opportunities for innovative new entrants.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-24016066615822223522010-04-13T12:05:00.001+01:002010-04-14T08:05:25.615+01:00More chances to network with telecoms and government bigwigs from Turkey, the Caucasus and Central Asia<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiVMLQ7ShvokQy2au2EuCqpdi5QwvzmL55BWcScYWm0BC2qsTq3RtBb_0F0meq4vDofNNQdoNWm6Ql-oWqj1kgqDAHbFQBoqFgucgpMxGdCj2yvyklcuN6ylmcr1dCpCZ7xjRGKhPk7qLD/s400/CASPIAN.jpg" width="400" /><span id="goog_378293934"></span><span id="goog_378293935"></span><a href="http://www.blogger.com/"></a></div><br />
'tis the season to go networking with telecoms bigwigs from Turkey and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth%20of%20Independent%20States" id="aptureLink_Neykvq73Bw">CIS</a>, it seems. Having not long returned from one industry talking shop in Istanbul, DTW is hoping very much to be able to attend another one later this month.<br />
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The conference in question is the 9th annual <a href="http://www.caspiantelecoms.com/"><b>Caspian Telecoms</b></a> event, to be held in the city's <a href="http://www1.hilton.com/en_US/hi/hotel/ISTHITW-Hilton-Istanbul/index.do" id="aptureLink_6njHgjWAOu">Hilton Hotel</a> on 28th and 29th April. <i>DevelopingTelecomsWatch</i> is proud to have joined the conference's roster of media partners for the first time this year.<br />
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In the coming days, I will take the time to say more about this event and why it may well be worth attending for anyone doing business with telcos, telecoms regulatory agencies and telecoms/IT/information ministries of the countries in this region.<br />
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For now, I would simply encourage readers to follow the links in this short introductory note and review the organiser's web site.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-54693758165459737552010-04-07T09:35:00.008+01:002010-04-09T20:20:49.884+01:00Eurasia Com: doing the business in Turkey and the CIS<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgESoBjDK157uf8Zeq88Be0fgA_AeIgHccdYN9fSMT93m6kmLYkqi3HlqISE1bZAEVmW2K7zM6AtHur6atw7JIYXR-3v072ySM8V6GPcBFntkVbsy5fbaVHuWboOrKZnLQhzCyeC5BuAe2s/s1600/com_eurasia_logo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgESoBjDK157uf8Zeq88Be0fgA_AeIgHccdYN9fSMT93m6kmLYkqi3HlqISE1bZAEVmW2K7zM6AtHur6atw7JIYXR-3v072ySM8V6GPcBFntkVbsy5fbaVHuWboOrKZnLQhzCyeC5BuAe2s/s400/com_eurasia_logo.png" width="400" /></a></div>Back in January, I <a href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2010/01/eurasia-com.html" id="aptureLink_0yiXqVuTY6">wrote about the Eurasia Com conference</a> which the good folks at <a href="http://www.informatm.com/" id="aptureLink_BSF1iQ3Upe">Informa Telecoms & Media</a> host annually in Istanbul, taking place in either March or April. At the time, I thought it was unlikely that I would be able to attend. Happily, it did turn out to be possible after all, meaning that I am able to report some of what was discussed at the Conrad Hotel on 23rd and 24th March.<br />
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For those not familiar with the event or with the wider series of related conference-plus-exhibition events of which it is a part, a few words of explanation:<br />
<ul><li> Informa's <a href="http://www.comworldseries.com/" id="aptureLink_XLk9Lh5SYo">Com World Series</a> evolved from what was once known as the GSM (and later GSM>3G) World Series of events. The GSM series was itself a spin-off of the GSM World Congress (now <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile%20World%20Congress" id="aptureLink_GFNKPAuVM9">Mobile World Congress</a>), of which Informa was the original founder.</li>
<li>The GSM World Series brought scaled-down versions of the main event to a selection of locations ranged around the world's emerging markets. In each location, the aim was to gather large numbers of decision-makers from the mobile operators of the region around the host city. These locations included cities in Africa, Asia, Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe.</li>
<li>The Com World Series brand was introduced a few years ago to reflect a perceived need to offer meeting points for a broader community than just GSM mobile operators. The organisers were mindful of the idea that the previously quite sharp fixed-mobile distinction was becoming increasingly fuzzy around the world. They thought about what had once been pure play mobile operators offering other kinds of broadband service, either by building new networks (copper, fibre, fixed-wireless) or in partnership with established fixed-line operators. They thought about new mobility propositions from companies whose previous offerings had not been in the cellular space. They thought about incumbent fixed-line operators merging with previously quite separate mobile business units (think in terms of what <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche%20Telekom" id="aptureLink_GabqWYJkQs">Deutsche Telekom</a> is doing all over the CEE region).</li>
<li>Throughout this evolution, Informa's series of events has stuck to a pretty successful business model, which is still in place today - operators (and other telecoms service providers) attend for free, with most of the revenue coming from any organisations with products and services to sell into the operator space. This includes the major network technology vendors and all manner of software companies, systems integrators, consultancies etc.</li>
<li>Eurasia Com is a relatively new part of the Com World Series, although this year's iteration was the fourth to take place in Istanbul, having been relocated from Almaty, Kazakhstan, where the event first took place in 2006.</li>
<li>The challenge which the organisers face - and which I feel they met pretty successfully this year - is bringing together a crowd from what are quite diverse markets. A large Turkish contingent (representing the likes of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C3%BCrk%20Telekom" id="aptureLink_2gNNFEENcN">Turk Telekom</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone%20Turkey" id="aptureLink_qlFBJp3I0j">Vodafone Turkey</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkcell" id="aptureLink_sQXPgCZzlV">Turkcell</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avea" id="aptureLink_0FUaqodPoQ">Avea</a> and <a href="http://www.koc.net/" id="aptureLink_v1HijZfQwy">Koc.net</a>) mixes with delegates from the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and the Caucasus, making it necessary to arrange for everyone to gain from presentations in Turkish, Russian and English. If you attend next year, expect to spend some time wearing a headset which pipes the simultaneous interpretation right into your ears.</li>
</ul>That, then, is a little about the event, its origins and how it works on the day. The challenge mentioned above (making the conference relevant for both Turkish delegates and for guests from the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth%20of%20Independent%20States" id="aptureLink_OmoLwzLIw6">CIS</a>) was dealt with this year by having elements of the second day billed specifically as a 'Turkey focus' session, thereby acknowledging that there probably do exist some differences between the concerns of the local audience of those of the visitors from the former Soviet republics where market conditions are quite different.<br />
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I am pleased to report that this worked well. As a veteran of more conferences than I care to remember, I have got used to seeing events looking busy on day one and feeling a lot less vibrant on the second day. At Eurasia Com 2010, delegate numbers were, I think, possibly even higher on 24th March than they had been on 23rd.<br />
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So, what was discussed during these two days of slideware, panel sessions and offline networking? Well, in the sessions I managed to catch, highlights included:<br />
<ul><li>Informa analyst Gemma Bunting cautioning delegates to remain open minded about real mobile penetration rates across the CIS, noting that multi-SIM usage makes accurate measurement quite difficult and pointing out that in the supposedly saturated Russian market over 20 million subscriptions were added by operators last year.</li>
<li>Informa's Bunting noting that ARPU is declining sharply in some markets - Uzbekistan was given as an example - USD 9/month in 2007, dropping to USD 4/month by 2009.</li>
<li>Gemma Bunting wondering about the impact of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tele2" id="aptureLink_e6gvpFfLMB">Tele2</a>'s acquisition of a mobile operation in Kazakhstan and observing that the Swedish group is known for its aggressive pricing.</li>
<li>Ineke Botter, CEO of Azeri cellco <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakcell" id="aptureLink_59t2x2Msms">Bakcell</a> indicating the a mobile money offering from her company might not be iminent but was certainly "on the roadmap".</li>
<li>Mustafa Kiral of Russian telecoms investment group <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altimo" id="aptureLink_pUOYbAKJbj">Altimo</a> indicating that his company is in the market for opportunities to acquire majority stakes in telecoms operators in emerging markets - African markets were mentioned.</li>
<li>Altimo's Kiral sounding lukewarm at best when the conference Chairman asked if Altimo is considering investments in the wireline space.</li>
<li>Mehmet Hasanov of <a href="http://www.aztelekom.net/" id="aptureLink_CJh9YO99SB">Aztelekom</a> talking up the revenue potential of the wholesale business and wondering why telcos' marketing people are generally so inclined not to get excited about it.</li>
<li>A few snippets about the planned privatisation of <a href="http://www.tajiktelecom.tj/" id="aptureLink_AXTgdKMsN2">Tajiktelecom</a>.</li>
</ul>I was not surprised, also, to learn more in offline conversations than I did from listening to presentations. The lesson here, for those few conference veterans who do not already know, is that it's important to get proactive at these gatherings - get among the delegates and speakers, working the room and maximising the opportunity to develop a good number of valuable contacts under one roof.<br />
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My guess is that 2009 was at least moderately challenging for conference organisers and that delegate numbers across the events industry may have been negatively affected by financial worries on the part of target audiences. My recent experience in Istanbul, however, just went to confirm that there continues to be no substitute for making face-to-face contact with potential new clients and partners and that events of this type can be a pretty good one-stop-shop for doing so. I would also particularly recommend this and other events in Informa's Com World Series for the way in which they gather crowds from given higher growth regions around the globe.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-47354097559485362352010-03-31T17:14:00.004+01:002010-03-31T20:22:11.373+01:00Zain Africa Done Deal Watch<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj30AZNpYXcORrCNpRcdaYRbwSoeswHqqpRK-t0vKHOzSsmoZdtVCsyWqVoRYU_V1jBx2S6l9k7i3G69u15k-2dSVFQeg1k0oWYBuqi9nug1cXAqlW4CWzSD-CRVBShbQy9l8g2KPD20AFb/s1600/SAAD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj30AZNpYXcORrCNpRcdaYRbwSoeswHqqpRK-t0vKHOzSsmoZdtVCsyWqVoRYU_V1jBx2S6l9k7i3G69u15k-2dSVFQeg1k0oWYBuqi9nug1cXAqlW4CWzSD-CRVBShbQy9l8g2KPD20AFb/s400/SAAD.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i style="color: #741b47;">Former Zain CEO Al Barrak - exit from Africa caused his departure?</i></span></div>During 2009 <i>DevelopingTelecomsWatch</i> became somewhat preoccupied with the fate of the African assets of MEA mobile powerhouse <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zain" id="aptureLink_9RvJkUIPpS">Zain</a>. As speculation mounted about whether these operations were up for sale and, if so, who the prospective purchasers might be, DTW managed to churn out no less than thirteen Zain-themed articles, the <a href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/06/earlier-this-week-i-started-to-receive.html" id="aptureLink_7JvrPejYVF">first of these appearing on 12th June</a>. Scratching away at persistent rumours like a mutt with fleas, this blog was still whining on about the story on <a href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/08/zain-africa-speculation-watch-episode_18.html" id="aptureLink_aJPsO660ra">18th August</a>.<br />
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The whole series of ramblings rejoiced in the clunky title <b>'Zain Africa Speculation Watch'</b>, which has been revived and paraphrased here with today's offering. <br />
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Along the way, a number of potential suitors for Zain's African opcos got a mention. These included <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France%20T%C3%A9l%C3%A9com" id="aptureLink_SD8Qoi5HwD">France Telecom</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivendi" id="aptureLink_AafgkKhgv3">Vivendi</a> plus Indian operators <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliance%20Communications" id="aptureLink_MgeDsRD6Cl">Reliance Communications</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat%20Sanchar%20Nigam%20Limited" id="aptureLink_p9bjGgrjXC">BSNL</a>.<br />
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All these months later, it seems fairly safe to assert that the speculation stage is finally over, with shares in another Indian cellco, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharti%20Airtel" id="aptureLink_4FIPn4QYxW">Bharti Airtel</a>, <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gDdCZQbOpeLUfftorMOT7_Iy9InA" id="aptureLink_crHDbnjDjg">edging higher</a> on the back of news that it will sign a USD 10.7 billion deal to acquire the Zain's African telecom assets later today.<br />
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If, as now appears to be virtually certain, the Indian MNO does manage to conclude this deal, it will be a case of third time lucky, <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/biz/india-business/Bharti-clinches-Zain-Africa-in-107bn-buyout/articleshow/5720574.cms" id="aptureLink_ARp4pYmBsd">as noted recently</a> by Shalini Singh of the <i>Times of India</i>, who reminds us of Bharti Airtel's two fruitless attempts to engineer a tie-up with South Africa's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MTN%20Group" id="aptureLink_MfkY7EUl2l">MTN</a>, another saga which had some coverage here at DTW. As well as observing that the Zain Africa purchase will "catapult Bharti to the rank of the sixth-largest telecom service provider in the world by number of subscribers", Singh feels that it is "an ironic twist of fate" that one of the Indian firm's major competitors in its new markets will be MTN.<br />
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With this mega-deal now on the brink of proceeding, perhaps the time is right to ask that Bharti Airtel has to gain (and lose) from competing in so many new markets at once, and to ask what motivated Zain to quit Africa less than five years after entering the continent's mobile arena via the acquisition of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mo%20Ibrahim" id="aptureLink_mWizf44b43">Mohamed Ibrahim</a>'s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celtel" id="aptureLink_LIpJsbNdBL">Celtel International</a>.<br />
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<a href="http://www.telecoms.com/19171/bharti%E2%80%99s-purchase-of-zain-africa-a-done-deal/" id="aptureLink_kfHLfA7ANB">James Middleton of telecoms.com writes</a> that "for Zain, the deal represents a retrenchment of the company's strategy as well as good value." Middleton argues that while the company has succeeded in transforming its brand and in building up an impressive customer base across sub-Saharan Africa, it has struggled to operate profitably.<br />
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Quoted in James's article is his fellow <a href="http://www.informatm.com/" id="aptureLink_6of5LXz8JJ">Informa Telecoms & Media</a> employee Nick Jotischky, a principal analyst with the firm. "Perhaps it turned to the managed services model too late in the day and failed to leverage its supplier relationships so as to build in sufficient economies of scale", says Jotischky, who suggests that this is where Bharti Airtel will focus its efforts.<br />
<br />
"Whilst it will, no doubt, be confident of controlling its costs, Airtel will aim to build up its brand equity characterised by reliability very quickly," says Jotischky. "But reliability alone will not be enough – the newcomer will have to show itself to be innovative as well. In an already competitive marketplace, Bharti will not just be competing with other mobile operators for a share of wallet but with other brands in adjacent consumer goods sectors. This means that Bharti will be under pressure to offer services that are directly relevant to end-users and this will differ from market to market."<br />
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James Middleton talks up the chances of the Indian cellco maximising the value of this large new investment. "Bharti has a heritage in making network sharing and outsourcing deals work and will not be afraid of being aggressive on per minute pricing," he writes. "The company is also well versed in addressing the difficulties of serving a largely rural, high-churn, low-revenue market."<br />
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Inspired by this transaction, Informa's telecoms.com is currently running <a href="http://www.telecoms.com/19185/ten-tips-for-investing-in-africa/" id="aptureLink_6WGqUk5abb">a series of articles</a> offering 'ten tips for investing in Africa'.<br />
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Informa offer their first tip, that operators need to <a href="http://www.telecoms.com/19264/investing-in-africa-tip-one-be-innovative-on-pricing/" id="aptureLink_JScj76LeyE">be innovative on pricing</a>, while noting that mobile tariffs in much of Africa are high compared to those in some other emerging markets. "For example", runs the telecoms.com article, "<a href="http://www.ke.zain.com/" id="aptureLink_1wUVkZIZ0B">Zain Kenya</a>’s lowest tariff is about [USD] 0.04 per minute, for on-net calls.. compared to India, where Reliance Communications offers tariffs that are as low as [USD] 0.01 per minute, for both on-net and off-net calls." The article continues by pointing out that the fact that tariffs in Africa are relatively high is reflected in ARPU levels: "In 4Q09 blended monthly ARPU across Africa as a whole was [USD] 10.49 – but in India blended monthly ARPU in 4Q09 was much lower, at just [USD] 2.73, and falling.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRHEeSUoE7zKFez_Gpz1dMmagkAKjymFV22_zxN4blIt6AFat9c6Q_To4wCeB0C5UJGGuZeAgM8YrvtlrtvRnEHePonZI2raW6z16OB4fi2xHtlBkh5oqfLTK24OGDVvFENSkknzwQYE2D/s1600/africaindiaarpu.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRHEeSUoE7zKFez_Gpz1dMmagkAKjymFV22_zxN4blIt6AFat9c6Q_To4wCeB0C5UJGGuZeAgM8YrvtlrtvRnEHePonZI2raW6z16OB4fi2xHtlBkh5oqfLTK24OGDVvFENSkknzwQYE2D/s400/africaindiaarpu.gif" width="400" /></a></div>However, the article observes that mobile tariffs have already come down in many African markets in the past couple of years as competition has intensified, often because of the market entry of new operators. Usage in Africa, meanwhile, the article contends, has increased over the past couple of years too. African MoU, however, remains "half that of India's, which does suggest that there is potential for substantial further growth."<br />
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This growth opportunity notwithstanding, the gist of Infoma's 'tip' is that "African operators are probably best advised to avoid getting into the kind of price wars that are taking place in the Indian market", where ARPU halved during 2009, creating a big squeeze on operators' profits.<br />
<br />
Rather, Informa advises, "African operators should aim to demonstrate more of the innovation in pricing that is already evident on the continent through plans such as Zain's One Network, which allows subscribers to pay local rates when roaming, and MTN's MTN Zone, a dynamic tariff plan that charges lower rates when the network is not busy."<br />
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Let's see whether Bharti Airtel considers this to be sage advice as it embarks on its African adventure.<br />
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On a personal note, I will be interested to see whether the Indian cellco will make many changes to the management teams running its numerous newly-acquired opcos - and to listen out for a sense of how far Zain's people around Africa welcome the change of ownership. One opco CEO apparently quite upbeat about all of this is <a href="http://www.zm.zain.com/" id="aptureLink_8lP8OGoSCv">Zain Zambia</a> MD David Holiday:<br />
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Presumably less positive about Zain's sales of its African assets is the man who masterminded their acquisition for the Kuwaiti group, former CEO Saad al Barrak, <a href="http://www.telecoms.com/17847/zain-md-saad-al-barrak-resigns/" id="aptureLink_g9Dp0eZLVB">who resigned in February</a>.<br />
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At the time, Emeka Obiodu, a senior analyst at <a href="http://www.ovum.com/" id="aptureLink_vSVJFacHx1">Ovum</a>, said: "Al Barrak championed this expansion push – buying Celtel, and aiming to make Zain one of the top ten mobile operators by 2011. But his whole ambition was blown to pieces by the owners who wanted to sell off in Africa."<br />
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While Al Barrak and his strategy do appear to have some detractors, Obiodu does not seem to be among them: "He’s taken MTC, this small company from Kuwait and transformed it into Zain, a global mobile powerhouse. He didn't bite of more than he can chew, but his vision diverged from the vision of the owners. When we did some financial analysis on Zain, the company wasn’t doing particularly badly. It wasn’t like he ran the business into the ground, although you have to concede that some of the small markets in Africa were seriously under-performing."<br />
<br />
Now we will see whether Bharti Airtel has the patience and vision to stay in these numerous African markets for longer than Al Barrak's former company elected to do.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-90688469441116443112010-03-19T16:20:00.017+00:002010-03-22T16:34:41.121+00:00East African opportunities unclear as cellcos remain coy about data ARPU<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggakf4BSMHEQxzOTGIgWK6YjIxfsDhRebktsej3UPXVvAmRcePvy2GWMzpb6myDyWuE3q6hzSUFAxet13srEp72scM7lOK6iWzYeye4EJpAH4JuJvjPbUH3VIoTRUoIrT_t0fXNLyRSsPG/s1600-h/IMG_0638_KICC.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggakf4BSMHEQxzOTGIgWK6YjIxfsDhRebktsej3UPXVvAmRcePvy2GWMzpb6myDyWuE3q6hzSUFAxet13srEp72scM7lOK6iWzYeye4EJpAH4JuJvjPbUH3VIoTRUoIrT_t0fXNLyRSsPG/s400/IMG_0638_KICC.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5451495493664242098" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 102, 0); font-style: italic;">Kenyatta <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Int'l</span> Conference Centre, Nairobi: venue for this year's East Africa Com</span><br /></span></div><br />Last year I had the pleasure of visiting Nairobi, Kenya for the first time, building meetings around the excellent <a id="aptureLink_GF11giftwH" href="http://eaafrica.comworldseries.com/">East Africa Com</a> conference and exhibition.<br /><br />This year, given that my day-to-day commercial activity now does not give me much exposure to Africa, I will not attending. Were I still more active in Africa, however, I would certainly want to be there - and I would encourage anyone who does business with the telecoms operators of the East Africa region to head for the <a id="aptureLink_cPSOYjy9Tb" href="http://images.google.com/images?q=tbn:TzY8_pLP5qQGoM:www.travel-images.com/kenya20.jpg">Kenyatta International Conference Centre</a> on 27<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">th</span>-28<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">th</span> April.<br /><br />This year's event will be graced by the presence of the Hon. <a id="aptureLink_BvrNT0Q6FX" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel%20Poghisio">Samuel <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Poghisio</span></a>, the host country's Minister for Information & Communications and by <a id="aptureLink_jglz2ZSVA3" href="http://www.cck.go.ke/about/board/njoroge.html">Charles J.K <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Njoroge</span></a>, Director General of telecoms regulatory agency the <a id="aptureLink_Dxwc5uI3N3" href="http://www.cck.go.ke/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">CCK</span> (Communications Commission of Kenya)</a>. I don't recall the Kenyan Government and authorities being represented at such a high level at the 2009 event, so the organisers are to be congratulated for the upgrade.<br /><br />Sponsors and exhibitors will doubtless also be impressed by the number of operator <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">CEOs</span> to whom they will have access during the two days of discussions. Of these, two of the biggest hitters are Michael <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Ghossein</span>, CEO of <a id="aptureLink_4jnMZ5g2XO" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France%20T%C3%A9l%C3%A9com">France <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Telecom</span></a>-controlled <a id="aptureLink_XLZu9De8NP" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telkom%20Kenya"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Telkom</span> Kenya</a>, the country's incumbent fixed-line operator and Michael Joseph, the long-standing CEO of Kenya's dominant (78.8% market share, according to <a id="aptureLink_YEVAMCUoRw" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">WCIS</span></a>) mobile operator <a id="aptureLink_FWNz1UKpso" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safaricom"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Safaricom</span></a>.<br /><br />This may be one of the final conferences appearances for the latter, Joseph <a id="aptureLink_gpKNy359rc" href="http://www.itnewsafrica.com/?p=6340">having announced</a> his impending retirement. He joined the Kenyan operator in mid-2000, when <a id="aptureLink_hV1yrhGIQ0" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Vodafone</span></a> first invested in the company. Since then, he has guided the company from a subscriber base of fewer than 20,000 to over 15 million today. Along the way, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Safaricom</span> has become renowned for its <a id="aptureLink_0ocWY0BETu" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa">M-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Pesa</span></a> mobile money transfer service, which has brought the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">advantages</span> of financial services to very large numbers of Kenya's largely '<a id="aptureLink_HMhvrmAMJw" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unbanked"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">unbanked</span></a>' population. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Safaricom</span> also attracted praise this week from Alexander <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Grouet</span> of <a id="aptureLink_02Kk4OcTOa" href="http://www.miranetworks.net/">Mira Networks,</a> a leading provider of connectivity and billing tools between business and mobile networks in Africa.<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Grouet</span> <a id="aptureLink_WtodFV1bJm" href="http://www.itnewsafrica.com/?p=6326">asks</a>: "Would you plan a trip to a foreign destination if you <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">didn</span>'t know what the place looked like, what there was to see, how much a hotel room cost and what local transportation was available?" Having concluded that most readers would not, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Grouet</span> then invites us to imagine that what we’re talking about is not your vacation, but your business. "Well that’s pretty much what it’s like for most content providers wanting to penetrate the SSA [sub-Saharan Africa] market", he continues. "Despite the hype, the market metrics <a id="aptureLink_FV7ahuDL60" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wireless%20Application%20Service%20Provider"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">WASPs</span></a> crucially need in order to make the next step, such as data <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">ARPU</span> or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">WAP</span> traffic, are virtually inaccessible. Even traditional market data resellers don't offer it, as optimistically named Africa <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">VAS</span> reports almost exclusively include blended indicators rather than content-specific ones." I don't recall if this is a fair accusation to direct towards the good folks at the reports business of <a id="aptureLink_WtYv93lw8u" href="http://www.informatm.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">Informa</span> Telecoms & Media</a>, the organisers of East Africa Com.<br /><br />Even if it is, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">Grouet</span> suggests that the fault for the scarcity of these vital data lies with operators. "Out of the 26 operators in the 5 countries I worked on last year (Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Senegal and Cote <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">d'Ivoire</span>) only 2 to my knowledge," he writes, "publicly released their data <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">ARPU</span>." The two <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">cellcos</span> in Mr. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">Grouet's</span> good books are <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">Safaricom</span> and <a id="aptureLink_qzIJRU6grG" href="http://www.starcomms.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">Starcomms</span></a>, a Nigerian <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">CDMA</span> carrier.<br /><br />"The most likely explanation for this", ventures <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">Grouet</span>, "is that the data figures are still so low on most networks that operators simply don’t want to release them at this stage." According to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">Grouet</span>, even <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">Safaricom's</span> data <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">ARPU</span>, including M-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">Pesa</span>, stands at just <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">USD</span> 1 monthly, while the figure for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">Starcomms</span>, including EV-DO dongles, is just under <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">USD</span> 2 per month. "But at least, we know where they stand, and we will be able to measure their progress when they next update those figures," <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">Grouet</span> continues.<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">Grouet</span> hopes that other African operators will break their silence on the topic of data revenues, not least because that unwillingness to share data "only has the counter-productive effect of making it harder for international content companies, who precisely could help operators boost their data traffic, penetrate their markets." <p>Let's see how many <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">cellco</span> attending East Africa Com agree with these sentiments. Were I to attend this year, I would probably like to pursue that line of questioning, not least because I have received marketing emails from <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_47">Informa</span> which suggests that the region's operators are somewhat focused on data services.<br /></p>A speaker likely to turn in an entertaining presentation is Noel <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_48">Herrity</span>, CEO of Tanzania's <a id="aptureLink_tRRwJaDPni" href="http://www.zantel.co.tz/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_49">Zantel</span></a>, an operator in which the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_50">UAE's</span> <a id="aptureLink_GHOo6zLbcA" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Etisalat"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_51">Etisalat</span></a> owns a 51% stake. Mr. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_52">Herrity</span> delivered a compelling, nicely paced talk at the 2009 iteration of the conference and delegates will be hoping for more of the same. Perhaps we can be optimistic about that - <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_53">Herrity</span> may be in buoyant mood in light of <a id="aptureLink_dymKbiyESs" href="http://www.officialwire.com/main.php?action=posted_news&rid=114765&catid=317">recent reports</a> indicating that the operator has begun recording net customer additions again, following two quarters of net loss.<br /><br />One speaker for whom it could be challenging to stay 'on message'? <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_54">Bashar</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_55">Arafeh</span>, the COO of the East Africa Region for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_56">MEA</span> mobile group <a id="aptureLink_c8y6rCbtsY" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zain"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_57">Zain</span></a>.<br /><br />This might arise as a result of delegates' <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_58">curiosity</span> about the future of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_59">Zain's</span> African operations. Subject to takeover speculation for many months now (see <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_60">DTW</span> articles passim.), these assets could well be the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_61">property</span> of giant Indian <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_62">cellco</span> <a id="aptureLink_xQ2rpiTqDa" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharti%20Airtel"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_63">Bharti</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_64">Airtel</span></a> before too long. The most recent developments in this long-running saga may soon prompt a revival of the popular mini-series (well, it generated more hits than usual) which appeared here on-and-off for much of 2009, rejoicing in the clunky title '<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_65">Zain</span> Africa Speculation Watch' (and variations thereon).<br /><br />Other <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_66">CxOs</span> appearing on stage at next months event include:<br /><ul><li>Hans <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_67">Paulsen</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_68">CCO</span>, <a id="aptureLink_tXqKRT0wNN" href="http://www.utl.co.ug/">Uganda <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_69">Telecom</span></a> </li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_70">Themba</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_71">Khumalo</span>, CEO, <a id="aptureLink_U6NifQzUNA" href="http://www.mtn.co.ug/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_72">MTN</span> Uganda</a> </li><li>Ali Bin <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_73">Jarsh</span>, CEO, <a id="aptureLink_FqVnUPk9s4" href="http://www.canar.sd/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_74">Canartel</span></a>, Sudan</li><li>Julius <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_75">Kinyua</span>, CEO, <a id="aptureLink_mJCWk6R0UK" href="http://www.flashcom.co.ke/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_76">Flashcom</span></a>, Kenya</li><li>Geoff <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_77">Goss</span>, CEO, <a id="aptureLink_2lxrs5rFhT" href="http://www.celsys.co.zw/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_78">Celsys</span></a>, Zimbabwe<br /></li></ul>I'm sure this year's event will once again be a useful place to do business, gain market intelligence and enjoy the company of a crowd who always seem very open to networking and making new contacts.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-84793494329750670942010-03-04T15:40:00.015+00:002010-03-10T12:41:48.748+00:00Libya: diplomatic wrangles fail to derail Vodafone's plans<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1Prmkn69jI-bFWHE4XlbpypfyxClIBFapbnycVKalnwg1-d24jynDWeB2RKPj0_2VrjmAS6HQkL3zYLvsyHLMV3aYEgoLecu5GjXbPZ43CUfXazyAjxHKWjlMJi2Cl6-IaWt9C5N8FZ-x/s1600-h/Vodafone1.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 321px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1Prmkn69jI-bFWHE4XlbpypfyxClIBFapbnycVKalnwg1-d24jynDWeB2RKPj0_2VrjmAS6HQkL3zYLvsyHLMV3aYEgoLecu5GjXbPZ43CUfXazyAjxHKWjlMJi2Cl6-IaWt9C5N8FZ-x/s400/Vodafone1.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5446982569353586466" border="0" /></a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(204, 0, 0);font-size:85%;" >Vodafone services: coming soon to a </span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(204, 0, 0);font-size:85%;" >Socialist People's Arab Jamahiriya near you...</span><b><br /></b></div><br />One African republic has been hitting the headlines recently, as the effects of a diplomatic row between that country and a European nation is now affecting citizens of many other states. This is a particularly thorny issue given that much European money has been poured into the construction and oil sectors of that North African nation. People carrying the passports of most major European economies are now prevented from travelling there. This must be causing great disruption to companies whose personnel usually need to spend time in the African state.<br /><br />One giant global mobile business, however, seems to not to have been too seriously affected.<br /><br />In July last year, DevelopingTelecomsWatch <a id="aptureLink_pD6pxJiB9L" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/07/opportunities-and-challenges-for-mobile.html">made some positive noises</a> about the investment climate in <span style="font-weight: bold;">Libya</span>. While there was some head scratching about the attractiveness of the North African country's mobile market (mobile penetration was a hefty 141.58% at time of writing - it is 159.42% now, according to <a id="aptureLink_zJFXyGW8cm" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/">WCIS</a>), it was noted that relations between the USA and the <a id="aptureLink_IsurLy6sWq" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muammar%20al-Gaddafi">Colonel Gaddafi</a> regime had improved to the point whereby foreign investors might not fall foul of restrictions set by the <a id="aptureLink_3tflVgrkqb" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office%20of%20Foreign%20Assets%20Control">U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control</a>.<br /><br />More recently, however, relations between Libya and some western countries have once again become rather strained, causing Tripoli to stop issuing visa to citizens of the twenty-five European countries of the <a id="aptureLink_VG9S6fRG2h" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen%20Area">Schengen passport-free zone</a>. At the centre of this dispute is Switzerland, which, according to a Libyan newspaper report of February 14th, had <span id="articleText">denied entry visas to nearly 200 Libyans, including Gaddafi, members of his family and other senior officials. As </span><a id="aptureLink_XkSwSTMEri" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61L2X220100222?rpc=21">a helpful Reuters timeline</a><span id="articleText"> explains, this Swiss move came after wrangles that had continued since June 2008, when police in Geneva arrested Hannibal Gaddafi, one of the Libyan leader's sons. Gaddafi jr., along with his pregnant wife, were taken into custody following allegations about the mistreatment of two of their employees.<br /></span><br />By February 26th of this year, both the European Union and the United Nations <a id="aptureLink_XIJKymcliY" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/switzerland/7325539/World-condemns-Gaddafis-call-for-jihad-against-Switzerland.html">felt forced to respond</a> to Col. Gaddafi's subsequent call for jihad against Switzerland, announced as the row has escalated and become yet more bitter. By March 1st, <a id="aptureLink_tiDwjoCkif" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/7343455/Neutral-Swiss-hurt-by-Libyan-row.html">analysts were commenting</a> that the row has exposed weaknesses in Swiss foreign policy and damanged the country's reputation as an impartial global mediator.<br /><br />Citizens of countries in the Schengen zone, meanwhile, continue to be refused entry to Libya.<br /><br />From his name, I would hazard a guess that Mr. Colin MacDougall is either an Irish or a British citizen. As such, he would be a national of a country that has chosen to opt out of Schengen's border control arrangements. This would explain <a id="aptureLink_ED3ywrYdG9" href="http://www.libyaonline.com/news/details.php?id=12426">his recent present in Tripoli</a>, representing <a id="aptureLink_76Er5aNPfr" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone">Vodafone,</a> on whose behalf he formalised a Partner Markets agreement with state-owned Libyan mobile operator <a id="aptureLink_uZ4ROQCA0J" href="http://www.almadar.ly/">Al-Madar</a>.<br /><br />MacDougall seems to work for the <a id="aptureLink_CKQr0t2o6I" href="http://www.vodafone.com/start/investor_relations/vodafone_at_a_glance0/global_footprint/partner_networks.html">Partner Markets</a> unit of the giant cellco, which enables subscribers of operators in which Vodafone has no equity to enjoy exclusive access to a range of products, services and devices from the UK-headquartered group. Partner operators also gain from Vodafone's experience in supply chain management, the acquisition of enterprise customers and improved network inter-working. In turn, Vodafone customers can gain from improved roaming arrangements in countries where Vodafone does not otherwise have a presence.<br /><br />Over the last few years, I have had the pleasure of meeting several people attached to Vodafone Partner Markets and know that they work pretty hard to maximise the value of the numerous relationships they manage worldwide. In light of the recent wrangles, and keeping in mind the eccentricities of the state which owns Vodafone's latest MNO partner, one wonders whether this will be an especially challenging relationship to maintain. However, given that oil-rich Libya is of vital economic significance and that the Vodafone teams who run these partnerships appear to be so adept at meeting tough challenges, I daresay this will prove advantageous to the shareholders and customers of the global mobile group.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-70716084820806438482010-03-02T15:22:00.024+00:002010-03-02T17:05:15.255+00:00The road to hell...... is paved, as <a id="aptureLink_c05GKMaNXX" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel%20Johnson">Dr. Johnson</a> didn't ever say, with good intentions.<br /><br />One such intention was set out here in the <a id="aptureLink_ppFmh0S1Rf" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2010/01/eurasia-com.html">most recent DTW post</a>, namely that this blog would review some of the predictions made in the <a id="aptureLink_JPUsMhN0v6" href="http://io2010.informatm.com/">Industry Outlook report that is made available for free downloading</a> by <a id="aptureLink_bh2oqM347X" href="http://www.informatm.com/">Informa Telecoms & Media</a>. The plan was to zero in on any predictions relating specifically to emerging markets and developing countries.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh4lq0TOcxpE-R0j0JXV40j-9lv7fudvnxS2JD3G3UuHCzvsp85gOMUvRFIjfHivlSYcpPF_KVOPZu8dAoin7kXCDooRWxfEbM1XiwRwJg9G_XX5F4r4uf22xVoloSjSiRqfcAY5aMIasX/s1600-h/mio_header.png"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 82px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh4lq0TOcxpE-R0j0JXV40j-9lv7fudvnxS2JD3G3UuHCzvsp85gOMUvRFIjfHivlSYcpPF_KVOPZu8dAoin7kXCDooRWxfEbM1XiwRwJg9G_XX5F4r4uf22xVoloSjSiRqfcAY5aMIasX/s400/mio_header.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5439980489091030690" border="0" /></a><br />Two months have passed since that rash promise was made and not a peep has been heard from this once prolific blog - no fewer than 147 posts saw were published here in 2009.<br /><br />Apologies, then, to anyone who has found <span style="font-style: italic;">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span> to be a useful source of news, commentary and speculation and who now wonders whether the blog has fizzled out of existence. Happily, for anyone that cares, this is not the case. That said, I do not expect to be writing anything like as often in 2010 than was the case last year. My commercial activities are, I am pleased to report, taking up far more time now, suggesting that this year will be more profitable than the one we have left behind us. I do hope that regular readers are facing this first year of a new decade with similar optimism.<br /><br />Failure to deliver on good intentions notwithstanding, then, perhaps DTW and its writer are not on that proverbial road to hell.<br /><br />What of our industry and its interests across emerging markets? Hellbound? Or good times ahead?<br /><br />Belatedly, then, with two months of the new year having already passed, let's attempt to answer those questions by taking a look at a couple of the predictions made by the crystal ball gazers at Informa:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">'So-called emerging markets will transition into a new phase of competition based on services and bring into question the validity of the term "emerging market" as it is understood in the telecoms sector today.</span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 51, 102);">'</span><br /><br />Informa's report notes that "Until now, the term 'emerging market' in the context of the mobile sector has been used as a catch-all phrase to describe markets characterised by low penetration rates, a proliferation of mobile network operators, steep drops in the price of basic communications and resulting explosive mobile subscription growth."<br /><br />This is familiar territory here at DTW. Numerous times, reference has been made to markets in which the price of mobile services has been squeezed down to a level that makes life very hard for some of the competing cellcos. In July last year, for example, this blog covered the decision of <a id="aptureLink_gntRU3PiHH" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millicom">Millicom International Cellular</a> to withdraw from all the Asian markets in which it once did business - Sri Lanka, Laos and Cambodia. The latter country certainly matches the Informa's report's reference to "a proliferation" of MNOs. No fewer than nine (!!) cellcos are currently fighting for business in a country with just 14.8 million inhabitants. Here they all are, with market share figures from Informa's <a id="aptureLink_CEQkWSeTM3" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/">WCIS</a> product:<br /><ol><li><a id="aptureLink_fCnOmDSkTs" href="http://www.cellcard.com.kh/">Cellcard</a> (GSM, 42.12% market share - the operator in which Millicom had a stake)</li><li><a id="aptureLink_RXg9x6xU1C" href="http://www.metfone.com.kh/">Metfone</a> (GSM, 18.86%, owned by <a id="aptureLink_3jqrmSmaFL" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viettel%20Mobile">Viettel</a> of Vietnam)</li><li><a id="aptureLink_bWLlLDFXQf" href="http://www.mfone.com.kh/">Mfone</a> (GSM/W-CDMA, 15.52%)</li><li><a id="aptureLink_L8om2XKLox" href="http://www.hello.com.kh/">Hello</a> (GSM, 13.38%, controlled by <a id="aptureLink_SQR9IgpIea" href="http://www.axiata.com/">Axiata</a>)</li><li><a id="aptureLink_aWLnSQH89I" href="http://www.star-cell.net/">Star-Cell</a> (GSM, 3.56%, part of the <a id="aptureLink_dmD7eCh47r" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TeliaSonera">TeliaSonera</a> group)</li><li><a id="aptureLink_MqXS8WUM29" href="http://www.beeline.com.kh/">Beeline Cambodia</a> (GSM, 2.90%, owned by Russia's <a id="aptureLink_HgA4UK8cLH" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beeline%20%28telecommunications%29">Vimpelcom</a>)</li><li><a id="aptureLink_aNfW0QMXvI" href="http://www.qbmore.com/">qb</a> (W-CDMA, 1.95%)</li><li><a id="aptureLink_K8dRJ4uwjC" href="http://www.latelz.com.kh/">Latelz</a> (GSM, 1.32%)</li><li>GT-TELL/Excell (CDMA, 0.39%)</li></ol>Regular readers may have spotted that from time to time I like to share video clips of telecoms operators' TV advertisments from around the world. Latelz (AKA Smart Mobile), as the list above suggests, is one player that may need some pretty compelling advertising if it is to become a more significant player. You decide how powerfully the Smart Mobile case is made by these:<br /><br /><center><object width="340" height="285"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/PmqvzSfp8W4&hl=en_GB&fs=1&color1=0x234900&color2=0x4e9e00&border=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/PmqvzSfp8W4&hl=en_GB&fs=1&color1=0x234900&color2=0x4e9e00&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="340" height="285"></embed></object></center><br /><br /><center><object width="340" height="285"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/pAhQeGsLDd8&hl=en_GB&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x234900&color2=0x4e9e00&border=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/pAhQeGsLDd8&hl=en_GB&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x234900&color2=0x4e9e00&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="340" height="285"></embed></object></center><br /><br />Cambodia is a pretty extreme case, perhaps, but DTW has also examined a number of African markets which seem to be ripe for mobile market consolidation. I daresay there are many more around the world in much the same state.<br /><br />While I am insinctively in favour of competitive environments which offer value and choice to consumers of mobile services, I do also sympathise when I speak with employees of operators that are struggling to improve shareholder value in the context of dramatically slashed prices. These guys, it sometmes seems to me, can feel as if they are on that proverbial inferno-bound round. If Informa's prediction is on the money, however, perhaps that fiery destination need not be reached this year.<br /><br />On to the next prediction with an emerging markets/developing countries angle...<br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 51, 102); font-weight: bold;">'Mobile banking efforts will continue to proliferate in emerging markets, but in the short-term these will be more important as a customer acquisition and retention tool than as a genuine driver of significant new operator revenue streams.</span>'<br /><br />The efforts made to date in this area got some coverage here last year. In May <a id="aptureLink_axeHHtAamN" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/05/indian-mobile-giant-continues-to.html">we noted that</a> giant cellco <a id="aptureLink_aDviQSkyLm" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharti%20Airtel">Bharti Airtel</a> was looking to tap into the big opportunity presented by the fact that 85% of the citizens of its Indian home market do not have bank accounts. By August, readers were invited to consider whether <a id="aptureLink_mdcPBGPADh" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/08/cellco-branded-mobile-banking-to-thrive.html">mobile operators would necessarily dominate</a> the market for mobile banking services aimed at turning a profit while going some way to alleviating the poverty of subscribers in developing countries. An alternative that we discussed was the possibility of operator-neutral solutions gaining traction.<br /><br />The chaps at Informa were have not been alone in keeping discussions of this sort on the agenda for 2010. Indeed, mobile banking in emerging markets got a mention during the plenary session of last month's <a id="aptureLink_Q7gjWYny01" href="http://www.mobileworldcongress.com/index.htm">Mobile World Congress</a>. <a id="aptureLink_GUgY5J50Rz" href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/02/17/mwc_spectrum/">Simon Rockman of the Register noted</a>, however, with some distaste, "that transforming the lives of millions of people by giving them bank accounts – something that can make the difference between eating and starving - didn't garner the same round of applause" as that received by the <a id="aptureLink_h5WgTVzqxX" href="http://www.gsmworld.com/">GSMA</a> project aimed at making every mobile phone use the same charger."<br /><br /><a id="aptureLink_jSUgyQCOng" href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/02/22/mwc_money/">Writing up his notes from the Congress the following week</a>, Rockman also wondered at some of the number crunching around the scale of the m-banking opportunity. He noted that day four of event saw an assembly of the mobile money working group that has received USD 12.5m from the <a id="aptureLink_VYBZP5Lpf6" href="http://www.gatesfoundation.org/">Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation</a> and is working towards the GSMA's target of getting 20 million of the billion people who have a mobile phone but do not have a bank account onto the first rung of the financial ladder.<br /><br /><a id="aptureLink_LKUeeqATY8" href="http://www.cgap.org/p/site/c/template.rc/1.26.1357/">Ignacio Mas</a>, writes Rockman, gave a detailed account of what the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation wants to achieve: "They wanted the very poor and insecure to be able to save", targeting people living on less than USD 2 per day. "As much as they have low subsistence incomes", reports Rockman, "the real problem is stability - they might only find work occasionally and have to eke out money until they next find work. Or if they are farmers they get paid seasonally at harvest time."<br /><br />Without access to banks, continues Rockman, such people are very vulnerable: "They will often give the money to people they trust for safekeeping but these are people in a similar situation to themselves. Lack of stability means people get multiple jobs. They can't concentrate on what will get the best return and pull themselves out of poverty because they have to opt for stability."<br /><br />This, and other challenges, blight the lives of so many people around the world that it does seem reasonable to suppose that a huge opportunity does exist for the telecoms industry to provide what the retail banking sector cannot in underdeveloped countries.<br /><br />Well, I enjoyed finally finding the time to write something here after such a long hiatus - but will refrain from making rash promises about when the next article will appear. More soon, I hope, though.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-81083896124914379102010-01-04T15:57:00.083+00:002010-01-21T15:39:57.444+00:00Telco sector bigwigs converge on Istanbul<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy7mfRwYpfgTHOt1kpUrZwu43f39P7zlgx2A1wlCUYYktJqWm6BS_RBDgSMe9j5Gk0gHN_ScBtbF9U-GLvvSCIHJYib-_qOyg7JW22_aEMZTdkGcYguCtx-He2A-4FmQ2cGApeJN6_6ClP/s1600-h/conrad.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 326px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy7mfRwYpfgTHOt1kpUrZwu43f39P7zlgx2A1wlCUYYktJqWm6BS_RBDgSMe9j5Gk0gHN_ScBtbF9U-GLvvSCIHJYib-_qOyg7JW22_aEMZTdkGcYguCtx-He2A-4FmQ2cGApeJN6_6ClP/s400/conrad.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5426563910677970258" border="0" /></a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);font-size:85%;" >Doing telco sector business in Turkey, the Caspian region or Central Asia?<br />......head for Eurasia Com at Istanbul's Conrad Hotel this March.<br /></span></div><br />A belated Happy New Year to all loyal readers of (and occasional visitors to) <span style="font-style: italic;">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span>.<br /><br />I daresay some of you will have found 2009 above-averagely challenging and are looking forward hopefully to a more prosperous and settled year ahead.<br /><br />With this in mind, DTW will soon be evaluating some predictions about what 2010 may have in store for those of us with an interest in the telecoms sector in emerging markets and developing countries worldwide.<br /><br />In the meantime, we will be using the announcement of the conference agenda for this year's <a id="aptureLink_SfKt3e6Shc" href="http://eurasia.comworldseries.com/">Eurasia Com</a> conference in Istanbul as the inspiration for a look around developments in Turkey, the Transcaucasus region and Central Asia. These are the markets from which the event gathers telecoms sector leaders for two days of discussions and networking.<br /><br />My guess is that I will not be able to attend the conference - taking place at Istanbul's <a id="aptureLink_emFiZ6Sh5z" href="http://conradhotels1.hilton.com/en/ch/hotels/index.do?ctyhocn=ISTHCCI">Conrad Hotel</a> on 23-24 March - but I would definitely recommend it as a useful place to make new contacts and catch up with existing ones if you do business with the telecoms operators of that part of the world. I feel qualified to make this recommendation, having attended two iterations of the event, and having been involved in its development between 2006 and 2009.<br /><br />This year's speaker panel includes a glittering array of telecoms leaders from both the host country and from numerous CIS markets. Those able to attend will have the opportunity gain a uniquely valuable opportunity to learn from these panellists - and some will doubtless advance their cases for doing business with the speakers' organisations.<br /><br />While I daresay, however, that many of the presentations and public panel discussions will be somewhat insightful, my experience of attending many conferences has taught me that delegates can learn far more by being above-averagely proactive. This means being a real <span style="font-style: italic;">participant </span>rather than a mere <span style="font-style: italic;">attendee</span>. It means doing more than just scribbling/typing notes during the conference sessions. It means more than downloading the presentation slides.<br /><br />So, if you make it to the Conrad Hotel in Istanbul, be sure to come prepared with the questions you particularly want answered. Then make the effort to direct those questions to relevant speakers, keeping in mind that however effectively the sessions are moderated, there will not be time for the Chair to deal with everyone who has something to ask. Should your most urgent questions not get dealt with, be sure to be one of those confident people seen springing from a front row seat to shake hands and exchange business cards with the hottest speakers the second the session breaks for strong Turkish coffee. <span style="font-style: italic;">Then</span> might be the time you will finally make your point or extract the answers you're looking for. Or your possibly rather sensitive enquiry might best be handled over that coffee and a piece of sweet, flaky <a id="aptureLink_kZvDQ0Jdur" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baklava">baklava</a>. Failing that, the business card you've gained could be the key to setting up post-event conversations.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdXXCoL1087LEi9lPz6MVBqWfTh71axbpr3oM3G25F30hPNj3m4qEnwpKwb0HIPCHeVDAXZdjvXJ03f0ZGSvNXu09Crx1AFVvO1YPBWYjpGQlxb2t6gtKTcenjvFC-qPWV0Jdg3PIvrFbM/s1600-h/coffeebaklava.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 267px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdXXCoL1087LEi9lPz6MVBqWfTh71axbpr3oM3G25F30hPNj3m4qEnwpKwb0HIPCHeVDAXZdjvXJ03f0ZGSvNXu09Crx1AFVvO1YPBWYjpGQlxb2t6gtKTcenjvFC-qPWV0Jdg3PIvrFbM/s400/coffeebaklava.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5426563402881239010" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Question time: get the answers over coffee and Turkish treats at Eurasia Com</span><br /></span></div><br />Does this all sounds like advice that's basic to the point of being a bit patronising? I hope not. It is, after all, offered as a result of having watched countless conference delegates fail to maximise the value of the investment their companies had made by paying for them to attend - even with the free tickets for which employees of telecoms operators and service providers are eligible at Eurasia Com and other <a id="aptureLink_mCndj8QTt8" href="http://www.comworldseries.com/">Com World Series</a> events, some costs are implied, be it plane tickets and hotel bills for out-of-town delegates, or just the cost of being away from the day job.<br /><br />If you do decide to attend, and do attend on a mission to learn about developments in the region covered by the conference, what questions might you direct to the numerous worthies on the speaker panel?<br /><br />Given that the CIS markets of Central Asia and the Transcaucasus region were among the first places that Russia's major telecoms players looked for international growth opportunities, you would hope that Eurasia Com is able to offer access to their top management. The event does not disappoint - gracing the stage for the opening Keynote Session will be Mustafa Kiral, Vice President of <a id="aptureLink_rNSm7qBARO" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altimo">Altimo</a> and <a id="aptureLink_DiW7CdW6w5" href="http://www.mtsgsm.com/about/management/raspopov/">Oleg Raspopov</a>, who heads up the 'Foreign Subsidiaries' Business unit of giant Russian cellco <a id="aptureLink_vTB0pVg7fe" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile%20TeleSystems">MTS</a>.<br /><br />Any industry watchers with a strong interest in the latter company, might be tempted to try and squeeze in a question about the operator's hopes for its mobile broadband offering in Moscow, now that 3G services can finally be made available in the Russian capital. A full year after 3G services were offered in other parts of Russia, Muscovites <a id="aptureLink_EhShBDUwRb" href="http://rt.com/Business/2009-12-18/moscow-3g-gets-go.html">learned last month</a> that the country's military authorties were finally ready to cede control of the necessary spectrum and enable operators to switch on their W-CDMA base stations.<br /><center><object width="280" height="225"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://rt.com/s/swf/player.swf?file=http://rt.com/v/2009-12-19/531994_3g.flv&image=http://rt.com/s/obj/2009-12-18/3g.jpg&controlbar=over&skin=http://rt.com/s/swf/skin/stylish1.swf&streamer=lighttpd"><br /><embed src="http://rt.com/s/swf/player.swf?file=http://rt.com/v/2009-12-19/531994_3g.flv&image=http://rt.com/s/obj/2009-12-18/3g.jpg&controlbar=over&skin=http://rt.com/s/swf/skin/stylish1.swf&streamer=lighttpd" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="280" height="225"></embed></object></center><br />Given Mr Raspopov's responsibilities, however, and given the geographical coverage of the conference agenda, perhaps it might be more germane for delegates to ask the MTS man whether his company has any interest in further extending its CIS footprint. At present, MTS subsidiaries compete <a id="aptureLink_rPKQjpb0Hx" href="http://www.mts.uz/">in Uzbekistan</a>, <a id="aptureLink_ZOjGloTl6i" href="http://www.mts.tm/">Turkmenistan</a> and <a id="aptureLink_qJQAYdsaT9" href="http://www.vivacell.am/">Armenia</a>. Away from the immediate focus region for this conference, further MTS business units operate <a id="aptureLink_lg5WHcANxw" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MTS%20Ukraine">in Ukraine</a> and <a id="aptureLink_dOfYVaELl5" href="http://www.mts.by/">Belarus</a>.<br /><br />Strikingly absent from the MTS sphere of influence are two of the region's potentially more attractive markets - MTS does not compete in either Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan.<br /><br />In June last year, MTS CEO <a id="aptureLink_F5KCoAA2Dz" href="http://www.mtsgsm.com/about/management/ceo/">Mikhail Shamolin</a> <a id="aptureLink_yPZsv1OClJ" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL858281320090608?rpc=21">told Reuters</a> that his company was looking at acquisition opportunities in both countries, having decided that the prospects for a start-up operation were not good in either market.<br /><br />It now appears, however, that the opportunity to make an acquisition in Kazakhstan has now passed. That country's mobile arena is contested by four operators, with the market split as follows, as of end-December 2009, according to the <a id="aptureLink_gtW00JKHru" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/">WCIS</a> service offered by the organisers of Eurasia Com, <a id="aptureLink_1c2yYy9ueP" href="http://www.informatm.com/">Informa Telecoms & Media</a>:<br /><ul><li><a id="aptureLink_L8j98A9CxN" href="http://www.beeline.kz/">Beeline Kazakhstan</a> (<a id="aptureLink_3LexGI4nRE" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vimpelcom">Vimpelcom</a>), 43.27% share</li><li><a id="aptureLink_kvFQ5VeQMQ" href="http://www.kcell.kz/">KCell</a> (<a id="aptureLink_fXyEE26469" href="http://www.teliasonera.com/about_teliasonera/markets_and_brands/eurasia">TeliaSonera Eurasia</a>/<a id="aptureLink_sRQkTC0i5Y" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkcell">Turkcell</a>), 42.87</li><li><a id="aptureLink_JVIl9CNkyd" href="http://www.neogsm.kz/">Neo</a>, 7.29%</li><li><a id="aptureLink_fMpWUhgnSx" href="http://www.altel.kz/">Altel</a>, 6.57%</li></ul>The two leading mobile operators, then, are controlled by MTS's main rivals in the region and are therefore, surely, extremely unlikely targets for addition to Mr Raspopov's Foreign Subsidiaries Unit. Altel, too, as a rare example of a <a id="aptureLink_KP7sJYdtQW" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IS-95">CDMA</a> operator in the region, strikes me as a company one cannot easily imagine on the MTS shopping list.<br /><br />Neo, a late entrant GSM operator which went to market in 2007, would be the logical choice for an MTS purchase. A majority stake in this cellco, however, is to be snapped up by <a id="aptureLink_8qPgfeoKmL" href="http://www.tele2.com/">Tele2</a>, the Sweden-headquartered pan-European telecoms group. This transaction, <a id="aptureLink_avfgOWL0nZ" href="http://www.cellular-news.com/story/41063.php">as reported in December</a>, involves Tele2 paying around USD 77 million for the 51% stake held by Kazakhstan's incumbent fixed line operator, <a id="aptureLink_xhKrPd4dtW" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KazakhTelecom">Kazakhtelecom</a>, which also owns 49% of KCell. According to <a id="aptureLink_95SKpdEyvO" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091214-707198.html">a Wall Street Journal report</a>, Tele2 has the option to buy the remaining 49% of Neo shares in five years' time from private investment group Asianet Holdings BV.<br /><br />It will now be interesting to see how much Tele2 makes of the opportunity that MTS has declined to puruse in Kazakhstan. Interesting, too, to see how far the company's usual preference for competing aggressively on price will impact on the Kazakh market.<br /><br />Speaking on a conference call, Tele2 said that Neo currently has lower prices and lower ARPU than its two larger rivals, so it remains to be seen whether tariffs can be cut further in order to gain market share. According to the WSJ article, a market share of 20% is what Tele2 has in mind.<br /><br />Of further CIS markets likely to prove attractive to MTS, perhaps only Azerbaijan remain. <a id="aptureLink_iPlYCckEtL" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/06/its-time-to-take-break-from-writing.html">A June 2009 article here at DTW</a> noted that the Caucasus region country, although quite small with a population of just under 9 million, is oil-rich and relatively prosperous. It is notable, therefore, that of the three groups with footprints across the southernmost CIS markets, only the TeliaSonera-Turkcell joint venture <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Fintur Holdings has a presence - in the form of market-leading MNO </span><a id="aptureLink_X9GtjRBAbJ" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azercell">Azercell</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">, none of whose competitors are aligned with a significant </span>multinational telecoms groups. Of these competitors, one will be represented at Eurasia Com by its CEO - <a id="aptureLink_PeYB5Zjy89" href="http://www.bakcell.com/en/management-team">Ineke Botter</a>, who heads up <a id="aptureLink_DceoblzHaM" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakcell">Bakcell</a>, is among the speakers. A cheeky question one might direct to Ms. Botter would be to ask whether she feels either her company or the third entrant, <a id="aptureLink_FJAlruixdp" href="http://narmobile.az/">Nar Mobile</a>, is a likely acquisition target for MTS or Vimpelcom, which similarly has no presence in Azerbaijan.<br /><br />With Tele2 having seized the opportunity to move into the Kazakh market, conference delegates may be wondering what impact this may have on the country's telecoms landscape. Questions along these lines can be raised at Eurasia Com, the ideal time for this probably being a morning session on Tuesday 23rd March which deals specifically with the rapid maturation of the Kazakh telecoms market. Fielding the questions will be Kuanysbek Bahytbekovich Yesekeev, Chairman of that Kazakhstan Agency of Information Technologies and Telecommunication, and Maxut Sauranbekov, President of CDMA operator Altel.<br /><br />A new feature of the conference this year is a day two session focussing specifically on the Turkish market. A very strong line-up of speakers will be on hand to debate the key issues. These include:<br /><ul><li>Erkan Akdemir, CEO of <a id="aptureLink_bA45elMp8Q" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avea">Avea</a>, the mobile operator in which incumbent wireline telco <a id="aptureLink_nkmEF8XDpr" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turk%20Telekom">Turk Telekom</a> holds a controlling interest</li><li>Mehmet Toros, Turk Telekom's VP International and Wholesale</li><li>Tayfun Cataltepe, the Chief Corporate Strategy & Regulations Officer of market-leading MNO Turkcell</li><li>John Samarron, CTO of <a id="aptureLink_dUE1lddThm" href="http://www.vodafone.com.tr/">Vodafone Turkey</a></li></ul>This year's event looks set to be even more useful than previous iterations and I look forward to feedback from colleagues and contacts who are able to attend.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-33699186641142416132009-12-18T10:57:00.030+00:002010-01-08T09:14:58.940+00:00Something to Grin about for Malawi's mobile users?<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9lU73_KHgyA9hYzEmqq48DxIqjpv_qeGhT9M_hr72FWe7LwNiOaRGfZxGmFzkkmOEEs38CAAbwzDpOPMVrInUlISM8arPUl9sa0lO3SB-kQLmlSOccCW7V1dVTJTiDIGxdslgRr43b93g/s1600-h/tay.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 175px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9lU73_KHgyA9hYzEmqq48DxIqjpv_qeGhT9M_hr72FWe7LwNiOaRGfZxGmFzkkmOEEs38CAAbwzDpOPMVrInUlISM8arPUl9sa0lO3SB-kQLmlSOccCW7V1dVTJTiDIGxdslgRr43b93g/s400/tay.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5423967709799048418" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Tay</span> Grin - star of the African hip hop scene... and Malawi's mobile sector?</span></span><br /></div><br />It is not with any pleasure that <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span></span> sometimes observes a country's mobile market and concludes that one of more of its competing <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">cellcos</span> surely seems doomed to fall by the wayside. All such enterprises are doubtless founded in good faith and with the firm intention to reward investors and employees for providing services to customers who will want them. A somewhat recurrent theme of this blog, however, in its first year, has been to wonder aloud about likely market consolidations around the world, and to speculate a little about which actors might be shaken out in any such eventuality.<br /><br />In March, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">DTW</span> picked up comments on this topic from <a id="aptureLink_NlqYuTmCwB" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MTN%20Group"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">MTN</span></a> CEO <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Phuthuma</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Nhleko</span>, spotted in <a id="aptureLink_eTSt1AIPkh" href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/49569b58-124d-11de-b816-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F49569b58-124d-11de-b816-0000779fd2ac.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fdeveloping-telecoms.blogspot.com%2F2009%2F03%2Fgoing-gets-tougher-in-african-mobile.html&nclick_check=1">a Financial Times article</a>. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Nhleko</span> was quoted as saying that he believes Africa will see a wave of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">telco</span> sector consolidation in the next 1-2 years, and the article contended that this will result from both new entrants and more established competitors struggling to maintain healthy margins in increasingly crowded markets.<br /><br />Shortly after this, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">DTW</span> <a id="aptureLink_IFggduUFKM" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/03/are-some-african-markets-already.html">took a look at some examples</a> of particularly congested competitive environments in Africa, starting with Benin, the continent's 31st largest country in terms of the size of its population. We noted that five mobile operators now compete in a country of just 8 million people.<br /><br />In the same month, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">DTW</span> articles asked about the potential for mobile market consolidation <a id="aptureLink_lUqapPPz5Y" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/03/burundi-room-for-more-mobile-operators.html">in Burundi</a> and <a id="aptureLink_unq5DJEBl3" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/03/gabons-mobile-market-room-for-one-more.html">in Gabon</a>. By June, the same questions was being asked <a id="aptureLink_3ro2jZHbhN" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/06/lucky-seven-can-tanzanian-market-offer.html">of Tanzania</a>. A related post the same month <a id="aptureLink_Lhnr3QifFy" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/search/label/Malawi">zeroed in on Malawi</a>, which might be something of a different case.<br /><br />In that piece, it was noted that this under-penetrated market (still only 17.47% mobile penetration as of end-December 2009, according to <a id="aptureLink_QOZ6l1S3Cl" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">WCIS</span></a>) may offer a decent opportunity for a new entrant. At present, a duopoly exists, with the country's mobile subscriber base split between <a id="aptureLink_mMOA49wUoE" href="http://www.mw.zain.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Zain's</span> Malawi operation</a> and <a id="aptureLink_huUpveDd2w" href="http://www.tnm.co.mw/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Telekom</span> Networks Malawi</a>, <span style="font-size:100%;">a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">cellco</span> in which the country's incumbent fixed line operator </span><a id="aptureLink_mcsF0axR7h" href="http://www.mtl.mw/"><span style="font-size:100%;">Malawi </span>Telecommunications</a> owns a 44% stake. Market share now (as of end-Dec 2009) is as follows: <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Zain</span> 71.34%; <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">TNM</span> 28.66% (estimated figures, again from <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">WCIS</span>).<br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;">The June article on Malawi noted that country's telecoms regulator felt that the services <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">offered</span> by these two operators were at a price point which did not offer a fair deal to consumers. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Zain</span> responded by blaming high tariffs on high taxes. The market-leading operator also claimed that as the overall mobile market grows in Malawi, it will be able to lower prices. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Zain</span> Malawi's Managing Director <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Fayaz</span> King explained: "Imagine at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Zain</span>, we have mounted a network that could take up to 5 million users but we currently have only 1.5 million customers. We believe that if at least 3 million people started using the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Zain</span> network, we could start enjoying the benefits of economies of scale."</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /></span>The regulatory agency apparently remains unmoved by this line of argument. Aiming to bring down prices and extend service availability to the wider <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">population</span>, the Malawi Communications Regulatory Authority felt that the best course of action was to open the market to a third entrant. As early as April this year, <a id="aptureLink_3YHYH4ya2K" href="http://www.cellular-news.com/story/36828.php">press reports were naming</a> this third entrant - Globally Advanced Integrated Networks, the holder of the G-Mobile brand name.<br /><br />Does Malawi, then, really offer a good prospect for this third entrant? As discussed back in June, there are reasons to suppose that <span style="font-size:100%;">while there are certainly numerous <span style="font-style: italic;">European</span> countries with populations smaller than that of Malawi sustaining three or more mobile operators, the landlocked southeast African nation might nevertheless offer insufficiently attractive returns for prospective new entrants. While its high population density suggests that mobile coverage could be built out relatively cost-effectively, Malawi is, however, among the world's least developed countries, with a heavily agriculture-dependent economy and with GDP per <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">capita</span> of less than <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">USD</span> 320. Low life expectancy, high infant mortality and a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS all blight the country, with the latter draining the labour force and expected to impact further on GDP in the near future.<br /><br />However, even in this context, mobile penetration is <span style="font-style: italic;">very</span> low, as we have seen, even when compared with other underdeveloped African economies. So there could be room for one more <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">MNO</span>.<br /><br />Is GAIN/G-Mobile, though, a likely candidate for success as a third entrant in this environment? Perhaps not. </span><span style="font-size:100%;">Due to the economic factors mentioned above, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">DTW</span> suggested back in June that Malawi might be the kind of market where only <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">MNOs</span> able to leverage the scale and best practices of large groups can prevail and prosper in the long term.</span><br /><br />G-Mobile, seemingly not aligned to any such major international telecoms group, certainly does not fit that description.<br /><br />Who, then, is behind this latecomer to the Malawian mobile scene? The only person connect with the business whom I have seen quoted in the press is one <span style="font-size:100%;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">Limbani</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">Kalilani</span>, the company's Vice Chairman. Mr <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">Kalilani</span> appears to be something of a celebrity in Malawi - and is working to become more well known across and beyond Africa. Although he has some track record in the telecoms industry, having </span><span style="font-size:100%;">set up a wireless payphone company called Phone <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">Yanu</span>, it is in the music world that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">Kalilani</span> has made his real impact. </span><span style="font-size:100%;">Better known to his fans as </span><a id="aptureLink_x534ehGu3n" href="http://www.taygrin.com/bio.html"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">Tay</span> Grin</a><span style="font-size:100%;">, Mr </span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">Kalilani</span> </span>has established himself as a hip hop artist. Here he is in action:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/b61Oq-9QhcI&hl=en_GB&fs=1&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/b61Oq-9QhcI&hl=en_GB&fs=1&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/qCic1aAVx3U&hl=en_GB&fs=1&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/qCic1aAVx3U&hl=en_GB&fs=1&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />It would be truly admirable if <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">Tay</span> Grin can succeed as both an international music phenomenon and a domestic business success story - more admirable still if it is his indigenous Malawian company that manages to bring the benefits of mobile communications to a larger number of his compatriots than can currently afford the services offered by the two established <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">cellcos</span>. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">DTW</span> would be <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">instinctively</span> in favour of this form of African empowerment.<br /><br />Are there already signs, however, that the going <span style="font-style: italic;">will</span> prove as tough as <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">DTW</span> fears? Perhaps.<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">TeleGeography</span> has <a id="aptureLink_ycAZdFXVDC" href="http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=31378&email=html">recently reported</a> that G-Mobile has admitted it will not be able to meet the 31st December 2009 deadline for the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">rollout</span> of its network as stipulated by its licence. Instead the company plans to request an extension to the deadline from the regulator, and will make up for the delay by combining <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">rollout</span> phases outlined by the concession. Let's wait and see.<br /><br />G-Mobile's rivals, meanwhile, are making progress of their own. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">TNM</span> <a id="aptureLink_lpHfbGPX3f" href="http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=31379&email=html">has launched</a> its W-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">CDMA</span>/<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_47">HSDPA</span> network, with Charles <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_48">Kamoto</span>, head of the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_49">cellco's</span> Commercial Services division, saying that the service is initially only available to post-paid subscribers but that prepaid customers will soon have access 3G. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_50">Kamoto</span> added: "Most less developed nations do not have this service on board for their customers but in Malawi we are very aggressive, we believe that our customers need quality, they need top-notch services and that is why we had to bring this 3.5G technology."DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-63244170880588678492009-12-15T11:27:00.055+00:002010-01-06T17:29:12.289+00:00More musings on a latin t(r)ipThe <a id="aptureLink_C3iW0InTNT" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/12/memories-of-paraguay.html">most recent article here</a> was both a round up of some recent news from Paraguay and a trip down memory lane. I reminisced fondly about an interesting tour of four South American countries which I enjoyed last year. In doing so, I mentioned in passing the two telecoms cooperatives I was able to visit in Bolivia.<br /><br /><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/devtelwatch/4195434984/" title="LATAM17 by DevTelWatch, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2692/4195434984_4008228716.jpg" alt="LATAM17" width="337" height="253" /></a></center></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><a style="font-style: italic;" id="aptureLink_MKTUiLZcBP" href="http://www.comteco.com.bo/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">COMTECO</span></a><span style="font-style: italic;"> HQ, </span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Cochabama</span> Bolivia</span></span><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div>As the <a id="aptureLink_EghFKNrsNO" href="http://www.budde.com.au/Research/Bolivia-Telecoms-Mobile-and-Broadband.html">Bolivia market report</a> from telecoms industry watchers <a id="aptureLink_d0NKVQy3iJ" href="http://www.budde.com.au/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Buddecomm</span></a> notes, the Andean country is one of South America's poorest and least developed. According to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Buddecomm's</span> figures, Bolivia has the continent's lowest mobile penetration and second lowest fixed line <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">teledensity</span>. With regard to the former measure, data from the the <a id="aptureLink_DVKXWJUJ0T" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/">World Cellular Information Service</a> supports this claim. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">WCIS</span> indicates that the country's mobile penetration stood at just 60.08% as of the end of September this year. Most other countries in South America's less affluent northern <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">region</span> show much higher numbers, for example:<br /><ul><li>Venezuela - 105.98%</li><li>Ecuador - 91.35%<br /></li><li>Colombia - 83.75%</li></ul>In the more prosperous <a id="aptureLink_3YhJLLk1IQ" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conosur"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Conosur</span></a> region, the numbers tend to be higher still, for example:<br /><ul><li>Uruguay - 117.10%<br /></li><li>Argentina - 115.97%</li><li>Chile - 98.33%<br /></li></ul>Certainly, Bolivia seemed to be a visibly less affluent country than others I have been able to visit in the region. Although I did spend one night in the capital, La <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Paz</span>, in order to make an early flight on to Caracas (via Lima), my meetings were elsewhere. The cities I visited were <a id="aptureLink_9SnrEXAJVj" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa%20Cruz%20de%20la%20Sierra">Santa Cruz</a> and <a id="aptureLink_7E9VOXtwND" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochabamba">Cochabamba</a>. The former city is Bolivia's most populous and is at the heart of the country's economic activity. The latter city is Bolivia's third largest settlement, set in an Andean valley, with a magnificent backdrop of mountain peaks.<br /><br />As described in the most recent post here, the purpose of my tour around South America was to drum up support for the <a id="aptureLink_HlsE2Mqmvk" href="http://americas.comworldseries.com/">Americas Com</a> conference and exhibition, the success of which it was one of my tasks to contribute towards until last year. In the other countries I visited, it was sufficient to spend time just in their capital cities, travelling between meetings by taxi. This would not have worked in Bolivia, where in the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">wireline</span> space, at least, the telecommunications market is highly fragmented.<br /><br />In Bolivia, a national incumbent fixed line operator - <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Entel</span> - does exist. This was renationalised by the left wing <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">administration</span> of President <a id="aptureLink_HEN4s7qp66" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo%20Morales"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Evo</span> Morales</a> just weeks after we visited the company's Santa Cruz office. My understanding, however, is that the majority of the country's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">PSTN</span> subscriptions are with the numerous cooperatives. We felt it could be useful to visit some of these. In Santa Cruz, we were received at the offices of <a id="aptureLink_1c7JGH9fuJ" href="http://www.cotas.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">COTAS</span></a> (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Cooperativa</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">de</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Telecomunicaciones</span> Santa Cruz). In Cochabamba, we visited the headquarters of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">COMTECO</span> (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Cooperativa</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">de</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Telecomunicaciones</span> Cochabamba)<span style="font-style: italic;">.<br /><br /><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/devtelwatch/4236592376/" title="LATAM12 by DevTelWatch, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4016/4236592376_522abea42e.jpg" alt="LATAM12" width="422" height="317" /></a></center></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Entel</span> offices, Santa Cruz, Bolivia</span></span><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-style: italic;"><center></center></span>As with the visit to Paraguay's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">COPACO</span> described in the most recent previous article here, conversations with the representatives of these cooperatives (about how they might contribute to our conference) were strikingly unlike those we had at the offices of private sector <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">telcos</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">elsewhere</span> in South America. Again, the themes to which our contacts warmed most readily were around bridging the digital divide and extending the availability of affordable basic services to poorer and more remotely located users.<br /><br />While none of these cooperatives have constructed mobile networks, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">COTAS</span> is able to compete in the cellular space. Bolivia is a rare case of a South American country in which even one <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">MVNOs</span> is in existence - and that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">MVNO</span> is the mobile offering of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">COTAS</span>, hosted by <a id="aptureLink_HIKdCCPLbd" href="http://www.nuevatel.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">Nuevatel</span></a> (which operates under the Viva brand), an <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">MNO</span> once owned by <a id="aptureLink_NlR1tLg3jK" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John%20W.%20Stanton">John Stanton</a>'s <a id="aptureLink_xiBA7cVkCO" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western%20Wireless%20Corporation">Western Wireless.</a><br /><br /><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/devtelwatch/4250847527/" title="LATAM14 by DevTelWatch, on Flickr"></a><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/devtelwatch/4250885385/" title="LATAM14 by DevTelWatch, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4024/4250885385_381736b81d.jpg" alt="LATAM14" width="362" height="271" /></a></center></center><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">Nuevatel</span> HQ, Santa Cruz, Bolivia</span></span><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /><div style="text-align: left;">That <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">COTAS</span> is able to operate as an <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">MVNO</span> is not due to any particular encouragement on the part of the Bolivian telecoms regulator. A <a id="aptureLink_3I6a8zifpZ" href="http://www.diamondconsultants.com/PublicSite/ideas/perspectives/downloads/India%20MVNOs_Diamond.pdf">2006 report from Diamond Consultants</a> asked whether conditions, at that time, were right for the emergence of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">MVNOs</span> in India. I'll admit that I haven't yet read this report very carefully, but perhaps it's safe to guess the answer might have been 'no'. After all, as recently as March this year, <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span></span> <a id="aptureLink_KekjwHfGtZ" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/03/india-aircel-invests-in-expanded.html">was reporting</a> on continued regulatory wrangles which looked set to delay the market entry of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">MVNOs</span> in India. As part of its discussion, the Diamond Consultants report makes remarks about the state of play for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">MVNOs</span> in some other markets around the world. Bolivia is observed to be a market in which the regulator has discouraged <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">MVNOs</span>, with policies "primarily driven by the low penetration of mobile services and the low geographic reach of the network." It is further argued that "low <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">ARPUs</span> meant that the discount <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">MVNO</span> model was not viable" The regulator's stance is described as seeing "brand and data service-oriented <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">MVNOs</span>... encroaching on the already limited capacity" Rather than encourage <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">MVNOs</span> to emerge, the report observes, the Bolivian regulator "stepped in and provided incentives to mobile network operators to improve capacity and coverage". Despite this, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_47">COTAS</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_48">Movil</span> was launched <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_49">in mid</span>-2002 to complement the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_50">cooperative's</span> existing portfolio of fixed voice, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_51">ADSL</span> and cable TV services.<br /></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />The report puts Argentina in the same category as Bolivia - markets in which the entry of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_52">MVNOs</span> is discouraged by regulatory agencies. Despite this, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_53">MVNO</span> services have been launched there. As with Bolivia, this has been done by telecoms cooperatives.<br /><br />Now, <a id="aptureLink_LtrCJDh9ZD" href="http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=31348&email=html">according to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_54">TeleGeography</span></a>, a federation of telecoms coops, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_55">Fecosur</span>, is planning to expand the reach of these mobile services, expecting to extend coverage to around 150 cities and municipalities across the country within four or five months. According to the federation’s president, Antonio <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_56">Roncoroni</span>, the service is already provided in 14 cities throughout the country under the '<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_57">Nuestro</span>' banner. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_58">Fecosur</span> and another body, <a id="aptureLink_xS8sij0WQa" href="http://www.fecotel.coop/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_59">Fecotel</span></a>, jointly represent around 300 telecoms cooperatives across the country.<br /><br />Having mused here more than once in the past about Latin America's cooperatives and about <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_60">telcos</span> renationalised by left-of-centre governments - and about how these organisations appear to operate a little differently from those for whom shareholder value is a key consideration - it will be interesting to observe whether this new mobile offering will have any very significant impact on the Argentinean market.<br /></div><br />Others who finds the telecoms coops of Latin America at all interesting might like to look over a <a href="http://ci-journal.net/index.php/ciej/article/viewFile/241/207">scholarly paper</a> (dated 2005) from the <span style="font-style: italic;">The Journal of Community Informatics</span> which I found recently and which rounds up the history of the Argentinean cooperatives quite nicely.<br /><br />As the English winter draws in, thoughts of sunny days touring Latin America's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_61">telcos</span> in the balmy days of April 2008 are quite attractive. Hence these musings today.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-89082794675472400412009-12-11T16:24:00.050+00:002010-01-07T01:56:57.917+00:00Memories of ParaguayIn April 2008, your humble scribe had the very great pleasure of visiting four South American countries on behalf of events and business information company <a id="aptureLink_BfknPvxadm" href="http://www.informatm.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Informa</span> Telecoms & Media</a>. The purpose of the trip was to drum up additional support for the <a id="aptureLink_WWexG1pbWt" href="http://americas.comworldseries.com/">Americas Com</a> conference and exhibition, held annually, and usually attracting a few hundred telecoms sector execs from around the Western Hemisphere.<br /><br />While exhibitors, sponsors, delegates and supporting industry associations seemed to be broadly happy, it was beyond dispute that assembling a crowd which really represented the <span style="font-weight: bold;">majority</span> of the countries to the south of the USA was a challenging task. Various venues had been tried over the years - and each time, the location had a significant bearing on the size and diversity of the crowd. Mexican venues made for a group of participants drawn largely from that country, from the Caribbean islands and from some Central American markets. To host the event in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Buenos</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Aires</span> was to ensure that the group would consist largely of Argentineans and others from the <a id="aptureLink_O6qAcotTzV" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conosur"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Conosur</span></a> region, the most prosperous segment of the South American continent. In both of these scenarios, delegates from the less affluent <a id="aptureLink_I6DlKf5pES" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andean%20Community%20of%20Nations">Andean</a> countries would be rather more thin on the ground.<br /><br />South America's largest and most populous country by far is, of course, Brazil. Iterations of Americas Com held in that country's most amazingly attractive conference location, Rio <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">de</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Janeiro</span>, did very well in terms of delegate numbers. Brazilian delegates - who quite rarely seemed inclined to travel in good numbers to venues outside their home country - were so numerous in Rio that a particular difficulty arose, however.<br /><br />It was perfectly possible to lure a decent contingent of <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">influential</span> delegates from Spanish speaking countries to a conference and exhibition in Rio. For exhibitors and sponsors, however, picking them out from among the massively larger group of Brazilians could be challenging. It was tough, then, to create the <span style="font-style: italic;">perception</span> of having assembled a genuinely multinational delegate audience.<br /><br />It was with this in mind, and with the 2008 version of Americas Com scheduled once again for Rio, that a two-man delegation set out in April that year for meetings with a varied group of telecoms operators around South America. The week-long tour took in Venezuela, Bolivia, Paraguay and Argentina. Only the last of these had ever really been a source of significant numbers of senior delegates prepared to travel to our event when it was held outside their own country.<br /><br />For someone who whose previous trips to South America had all been to Brazil, I found this to be a fascinating opportunity. In many ways, it felt as if the only thing these four very different countries have in common is that the official language is Spanish. Walking the streets and having meetings in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Buenos</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Aires</span> struck me as being a very similar experience to what one might expect in a southern European country - Spain, Portugal or perhaps Italy. Venezuela and Bolivia were strikingly different places - the people, the climate, the infrastructure: a different world.<br /><br />Paraguay was, to me at least, the really unknown quantity - a country of which I knew very little aside from recollecting the name of its <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">erstwhile</span> dictator, <a id="aptureLink_z5xPoogdH1" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfredo%20Stroessner">Alfredo <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Stroessner</span></a> and a those of a couple of its notable footballers, Messrs. <a id="aptureLink_wk5FMgBYyG" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roque%20Santa%20Cruz">Santa Cruz</a> and <a id="aptureLink_Dunq2c5dtz" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9%20Luis%20Chilavert"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Chilavert</span></a>.<br /><br />My colleague (translator/interpreter/fixer) and I did the rounds of the mobile operator HQ buildings in Asuncion. These varied a bit in terms of how expensively they were decorated, but the offices were not vastly different in arrangement or atmosphere to ones you might visit almost anywhere in the world. We were, however, on the way to airport, to visit an HQ which looked and felt rather different.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/devtelwatch/4193146403/" title="LATAM07 by DevTelWatch, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2514/4193146403_ebba9a0aca.jpg" alt="LATAM07" width="362" height="271" /></a><br /></center></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a id="aptureLink_by4pCbmyLS" href="http://www.vox.com.py/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Vox</span></a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);font-size:85%;" ><span style="font-style: italic;"> HQ, Asuncion, Paraguay</span></span><br /></div><br />On our travels around the seemingly quite sleepy Paraguayan capital, it became clear that the local telecoms scene was a close-knit community. Having already been shown around town by a helpful local driver who seemed to know personally everyone with whom we had a scheduled meeting, we had a nice piece of luck on our visit to one of the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">MNOs</span>. The gentleman with whom we met was able to open doors at one of the organisations where we did not have an appointment fixed up. This introduction, then, led to a meeting with the <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Gerente</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Comercial</span></span> of <a id="aptureLink_AOlTXovGtG" href="http://www.copaco.com.py/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">COPACO</span></a> (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Corporación</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Paraguaya</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">de</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Comunicaciones</span>), the state-owned incumbent <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">wireline</span> operator.<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Informa's</span> Americas region event had only recently expanded its remit from a gathering purely of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">GSM</span> mobile operators. Part of our task was to increase the diversity of the audience not only in terms of countries represented but also in terms of aiming for a much broader range of telecoms businesses attending the show - fixed/mobile; state sector/private sector; involving delegates from the cable sector.<br /><br />So it was wonderful to have the opportunity to visit companies in these target segments and something of an eye-opener to have conversations with the leaders of public sector operators (we also visited <a id="aptureLink_CQZsUSPcV7" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANTV"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">CANTV</span></a> in Venezuela) and telecoms <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">cooperatives</span>, of which we managed to visit two in Bolivia.<br /><br />What was novel for us was discussing the proposed themes of presentations these companies might offer at our event and hearing of topics quite different from the ones we had heard discussed by private sector <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">GSM</span> operators in previous iterations of the conference.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/devtelwatch/4193909758/" title="LATAM09 by DevTelWatch, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2504/4193909758_8269aa942e.jpg" alt="LATAM09" width="362" height="271" /></a><br /></div><div style="text-align: center; font-style: italic; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">COPACO</span> HQ, Asuncion.<br /></span></div><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">COPACO</span>, which we managed to visit just ahead of our flight to the next stop on the tour, was no exception. Our host, who was exceptionally generous with him time, was most animated when talking about how his organisation was striving to extend the availability of services to under-connected settlements. During this conversation, I couldn't help being struck by how this gentleman's language varied from what I was used to hearing at such meetings and at conferences. I don't recall hearing the terms '<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">EBITDA</span>', 'shareholder value', 'market share', '<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">ARPU</span>' or their Spanish equivalents during our chat. Our surroundings, too, were different. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">COPACO</span> HQ lacked expensively designed marketing materials and branding. We entered through a hall in which customers could make payments. The scene there, to me at least, was somewhat reminiscent of a local government office in the UK - but before our local <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">authorities</span> were made to organise their activities along more commercial lines.<br /><br />With this memorable discussion in mind, then, it was interesting for me to learn this week, <a id="aptureLink_F1G6MQu0wi" href="http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=31301&email=html">via <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">TeleGeography</span></a>, that <a id="aptureLink_mbAjEL4l8Z" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millicom"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">Millicom</span> Cellular International</a>-owned <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">Tigo</span> Paraguay has been awarded a contract to deploy mobile services in four under-served departments of the country, helping <a id="aptureLink_woIKBhfpmm" href="http://www.conatel.gov.py/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">CONATEL</span></a>, the national telecoms regulatory agency, achieve its universal service targets. Under the deal, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">Tigo</span> will roll out networks to 35 municipalities where cellular services are currently unavailable and the Government will provide funding of around <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">USD</span>1.04 million to support the network deployment. In total, according to the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">TeleGeography</span> item, the project is expected to cost around <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">USD</span>1.6 million and benefit around 20,000 Paraguayans in remote areas. The private sector, then, has a role to play in meeting some of the challenges discussed by my host on our visit to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">COPACO</span> HQ last year.<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">COPACO</span> itself, meanwhile, continues to harbour ambitions of entering the mobile services market. At present, according to the <a id="aptureLink_aNQiov8xW7" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/">World Cellular Information Service</a>, that market (the mobile penetration rate of which is 85.45%) is split as follows:<br /><ul><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">Tigo</span> Paraguay, 53.45% share</li><li><a id="aptureLink_53FN7Le6fS" href="http://www.personal.com.py/">Personal Paraguay</a>, 32.55%</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">Claro</span> Paraguay, 8.56%</li><li><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_47">Vox</span>, 5.45%</li></ul>According to <a id="aptureLink_fu3bcxABt3" href="http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=30832">a recent <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_48">TeleGeography</span> story</a>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_49">COPACO</span> expects to join this list by mid-2010. With my visit to the company's HQ in mind, I'll be <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_50">interested</span> to see how their mobile offering fares in competition with the existing <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_51">cellcos</span>.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-68182191026600924142009-12-09T15:52:00.035+00:002009-12-12T07:00:52.808+00:00Cambodia's mobile price war: peace in sight?<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikzLecIfCJsD-bja4eKbTf9YguYAwzjEtTsLG0gQACxPQoz-rN_tIpANi7_9jahi26FlOhvfvmVC7078Ze8jO-eomH3hwwLQbX6PF2ZKyK7WdCqDWZrdCHX126KtDZADEJl4-sB7K8adTI/s1600-h/image006-2.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikzLecIfCJsD-bja4eKbTf9YguYAwzjEtTsLG0gQACxPQoz-rN_tIpANi7_9jahi26FlOhvfvmVC7078Ze8jO-eomH3hwwLQbX6PF2ZKyK7WdCqDWZrdCHX126KtDZADEJl4-sB7K8adTI/s400/image006-2.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5414238206347480130" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(255, 102, 0);">Beeline Cambodia: late entrant doing battle in a fierce tariffs war</span><br /></span></div><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span></span> depends on the indispensable <a id="aptureLink_c97JEaSIA6" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phnom%20Penh%20Post"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Phnom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Penh</span> Post</span></a> for news of all things Cambodian, quoting that organ quite liberally, for example, when donning a flak jacket <a id="aptureLink_HmrXvS2Mgg" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/09/big-trouble-in-indochina.html">to report</a> on the mobile price war which has been gripping the southeast Asian country for months.<br /><br />It was also via that esteemed news outlet that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">DTW</span> <a id="aptureLink_fy80cc8yW9" href="http://www.phnompenhpost.com/index.php/2009120830044/Business/edict-on-mobile-sector-to-set-minimum-tariffs.html">learned this week</a> that the Cambodian Government has tired of waiting for the country's numerous <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">cellcos</span> to end to their damaging tariffs battle. A long-awaited edict setting minimum tariffs was signed by the Government last Friday, telecoms Minister <a id="aptureLink_H4JAEUCZy0" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/So%20Khun">So <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Khun</span></a> is quoted as saying.<br /><br />"We offered free-market principles, but operators kept having conflicts with one another, so the government needs to have a hand in it," So <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Khun</span> said. The government will suspend the licence of any operators that violate the minimum tariff set by the edict, he added.<br /><br />The Cambodian mobile market is currently contested by no less than <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">nine</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">MNOs</span>. If there is another country with a population under 15 million whose cellular sector is split so many ways, it does not spring immediately to mind. Of that crowd of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">cellcos</span>, one, so far, has reacted positively to the imposition of a minimum tariff regime. The <span style="font-style: italic;" class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Phnom</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span><span style="font-style: italic;" class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Penh</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> Post</span> quotes Simon Perkins, CEO of <a id="aptureLink_z0KbwWgPOJ" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiata%20Group%20Berhad"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Axiata</span></a>-controlled <a id="aptureLink_LfS3jIAw1A" href="http://www.hello.com.kh/">Hello</a>, who says he supports the initiative "to bring some structure to the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">telecom</span> tariffs, in the absence of the usual competition guidelines and rules that exist in a lot of markets".<br /><br />This decision, of course, comes too late for <a id="aptureLink_Bgylk1LaGg" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millicom"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Millicom</span> International Cellular</a>, which <a href="http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/MICC/688085922x0x304178/640E196E-5F65-4D28-96BA-D529C1B3728F/090702_Strategic_review_of_Asia_update.pdf">announced</a> in July that its three Asian operations (in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Lanka</span> and Laos as well as in Cambodia) were to be reclassified as assets held for sale. The Luxembourg-headquartered mobile group cited problems around ongoing profitability in these Asian markets as a key reason for selling up and focusing its efforts on its African and Latin American properties. As <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">DTW</span> <a id="aptureLink_DvlJXlj5U1" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/07/millicoms-withdrawal-from-asia-to-promt.html">reported</a> in the summer, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Millicom</span> CEO Mikael <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Grahne</span> appeared to attribute much of the blame for deteriorating profits at <a id="aptureLink_d5fAlBihvk" href="http://www.cellcard.com.kh/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Cellcard</span></a>, the Cambodian <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">cellco</span> in which <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Millicom</span> has a 58.4% stake, to the disruptive market-entry strategies of latecomers to the country's mobile arena. The same <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">DTW</span> piece, however, noted that another major shareholder in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Cellcard</span> does not agree with <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Millicom's</span> assertion that this is negatively impacting profitability: "[There are] no concerns on profitability from our side," said Mark Hanna, CFO of <a href="http://www.royalgroup.com.kh/">Royal Group</a>, which owns a 38.5% stake in the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">cellco</span>, denying in July that margins had become tighter.<br /><br />Such was the confidence of the Royal Group in this assertion that the local Cambodian conglomerate agreed to acquire <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">Millicom's</span> stake in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">Cellcard</span>. This confidence also seems to be shared now by the Royal Group's bankers. According to <a id="aptureLink_amGjKJ746Z" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a5taNRli4BkQ">a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">Bloomberg</span> article</a> earlier this month, Royal Group has hired <a id="aptureLink_VDFV7ixBJF" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard%20Bank">Standard Bank Group Ltd.</a> and <a id="aptureLink_tJxek37nw9" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%20and%20New%20Zealand%20Banking%20Group">Australia & New Zealand Banking Group</a> Ltd. to arrange an 18-month bridging loan to help with the purchase of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">Millicom's</span> share of the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">MNO</span>.<br /><br />The appetite of the Cambodian authorities for intervention in the mobile market does not end with tariff control.<br /><br />Again, we are indebted to the <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">Phnom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">Penh</span> Post</span>, this time for <a id="aptureLink_hagdSzbFNH" href="http://www.phnompenhpost.com/index.php/2009112029660/Business/govt-calls-for-shared-mobile-towers.html">coverage</a> of a debate around mobile network sharing in Cambodia.<br /><br />Last month, the newspaper carried news of Minister So <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">Khun</span> calling for the country's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">MNOs</span> to share infrastructure. So <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">Khun</span> said the initiative would avoid duplication of infrastructure, thereby reducing costs across the sector, as well as moderating the effect that mobile base stations are having on their surroundings.<br /><br />"We do not want to see too many antennas dotted along roads in the future," said the Minister. Perhaps it would be too sarcastic to respond by asking "So why did you license nine mobile operators in a country of that size?"<br /><br />Given that some of these nine are well-established players feeling the effects of the later entry of certain rivals, it seems reasonable to suggest that the response to any mandatory network infrastructure sharing might be rather mixed. As the <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">Phnom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">Penh</span> Post</span> points out, the operators with an established presence in the market have spent many millions of dollars on infrastructure as part of their efforts to gain competitive advantage.<br /><br />The Government has shared a draft of a proposed telecoms law one of whose provisions would be to make infrastructure sharing obligatory. The private sector response has been to agree that while there do exist benefits around cost reduction and environmental impact, market forces in Cambodia have not been given sufficient time to work.<br /><br />"Mandatory facilities sharing will reduce the incentive on operators to build such infrastructure," said these recommendations. "This may result in less than the optimal number of towers being constructed such that when the operators commence infilling their networks to improve coverage and provide better service, they are unable to do so as all tower capacity has been filled."<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span></span> finds the mobile market of this particular Asian country to be fascinating. We'll keep watching.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-14300817558932033402009-11-27T17:28:00.032+00:002009-12-04T09:01:21.838+00:00Telecoms operators in developing countries are always owned by telcos from richer nations and never the other way round... right?<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsp7hn_FiDmdHvpfw28e6I_vo5KkJ10XxQmuYJkRlr9r0gQ6XKlACeB0AO3nfY91Lma7V6SN-XLZcfRkEwGy5cRN-OBHZxG6I2ItvzQWdW8D5LsdUr_mq6DSYLb63G7ju96eXxpOuJ20D8/s1600-h/Bouygues-Telecom.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 267px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsp7hn_FiDmdHvpfw28e6I_vo5KkJ10XxQmuYJkRlr9r0gQ6XKlACeB0AO3nfY91Lma7V6SN-XLZcfRkEwGy5cRN-OBHZxG6I2ItvzQWdW8D5LsdUr_mq6DSYLb63G7ju96eXxpOuJ20D8/s400/Bouygues-Telecom.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5411301946723349906" border="0" /></a><span style="color:green;"><wbr><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Bouygues</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Telecom</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255); font-style: italic;">: eyed by Egypt's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Orascom</span></span></span><br /><br /></div>While the focus <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span></span> is generally on communications sector businesses in emerging markets and developing countries, a battle between incumbent mobile operators and a proposed new entrant in Canada has been covered here of late.<br /><br />While events in the vast North American country are clearly beyond the usual remit of this blog, two factors go some way towards justifying the interest of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">DTW</span> in this particular story.<br /><br />The first of these is possibly a bit frivolous - simply the observation that despite Canada's <a id="aptureLink_FpY88nRNVF" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G8">G8</a> membership and status as one of the world's most affluent countries, its mobile communications industry lags behind that of many far less wealthy countries in terms of market penetration. The second factor which justifies spending some time on this story is the fact that the wannabe new <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">cellco</span> in Canada has its roots in Egypt and is affiliated with that country's <a id="aptureLink_iUfT8LrUvp" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orascom%20Telecom%20Holding">first multinational corporation</a>. That Egyptian company, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Orascom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Telecom</span>, has built a global business across a number of developing countries, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Algeria and Zimbabwe.<br /><br />I remember sitting in the auditorium at the <a id="aptureLink_KjdItgaOr9" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3GSM%20World%20Congress">3<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">GSM</span> World Congress</a> in 2007 and smiling at the rather direct language used by <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Orascom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Telecom</span> supremo <a id="aptureLink_fzi7m6OdQp" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naguib%20Sawiris"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Naguib</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Sawiris</span></a>. As Richard <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Wray</span> of the <span style="font-style: italic;">Guardian</span> <a id="aptureLink_r7l8GVVYS7" href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2007/feb/13/3gsmdiaryoras">also noted</a> a the time, the opening speeches (including those from <a id="aptureLink_3GIPJadzMg" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange%20SA">Orange</a>'s then-CEO <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Sanjiv</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Ajuha</span> and <a id="aptureLink_AhSivwHZog" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Vodafone</span></a>'s then-CEO <a id="aptureLink_sJfSLYbKn3" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arun%20Sarin"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Arun</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Sarin</span></a>) were somewhat in line with what conference veterans have come to expect - carefully prepared, lots of positive stuff about mobile communications enriching consumers' lives.<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Sawiris</span> eschewed this kind of talk altogether, preferring to announce that he was in the business for the money. While this element of the Egyptian tycoon's speech is what stood out for Richard <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Wray</span>, it is another remark that interested me and which has informed my thinking about the telecoms sector. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Sawiris</span> smiled about three giant multinational mobile groups being represented on stage at the World Congress by two Indians and an Egyptian. The point, I think, was to illustrate the shift of this industry's centre of gravity southwards and eastwards from the developed economies of Europe and North America.<br /><br />Having grown up with the comfortable notion of European and American countries building operations in developing countries and extracting profits therefrom, it has been interesting to watch <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Orascom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Telecom</span> working in the opposite direction. <a id="aptureLink_4Q0oe5khyH" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather%20Investments">Weather Investments</a>, an investment vehicle controlled by <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Sawiris</span>, holds more than 50% of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Orascom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">Telecom</span>, and also owns Italy's <a id="aptureLink_hnifbmLwuy" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WIND%20%28Italy%29">Wind <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">Telecomunicazioni</span></a> and <a id="aptureLink_VxIsivadhj" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WIND%20Hellas">Wind <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">Hellas</span></a> of Greece.<br /><br />The current attempt to shake up the telecoms sector of a highly developed economy like Canada is, then, not without precedent for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">Sawiris</span>.<br /><br />In Canada, however, <a id="aptureLink_DclEfkYwE2" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/11/orascom-telecom-continued-resistance-to.html">as noted here before</a>, however, there is fierce resistance to the arrival of <a id="aptureLink_i3bsZIlkSF" href="http://www.windmobile.ca/">Wind Mobile</a>. For now, the prospect of a commercial launch has been stymied by a <span class="aptureLink" id="apture_prvw28"><span style="background-position: right -1347px;" class="aptureLinkIcon"></span><a class="aptureLink snap_noshots" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian%20Radio-television%20and%20Telecommunications%20Commission">Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission</a></span> ruling that the company in breach of rules on foreign ownership and control.<br /><br />Today, in response to this setback, Wind Mobile <a id="aptureLink_FBnaHx1R6k" href="http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/November2009/27/c5743.html">has launched</a> a campaign "geared at letting Canadians know that when it comes to wireless service, they deserve more." The goal of the campaign, runs the company's press release, "is to raise awareness about the current state of Canada's wireless industry compared to the rest of the world, and to highlight why more choice is essential." <p>"The heart of the issue is that Canadians pay some of the highest rates for some of the most complained-about wireless service in the world," said Anthony <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">Lacavera</span>, Chairman of Wind Mobile. "This campaign is about focusing the conversation to the need for real wireless competition in <location>Canada</location> in order to lower prices, increase penetration and finally deliver the kind of customer service that has been sorely lacking for Canadians." </p>Others in Canada, however, have expressed the opinion that while <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">Orascom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">Telecom</span> has probably been treated unfairly, and while the country's rules on foreign investment urgently need changing, it would be a mistake to allow Wind Mobile to take part in the Canadian market because the other players in the market have to follow the current rules, so the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">Orascom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">Telecom</span>-backed company should as well. This is the view outlined in <a id="aptureLink_vN2kAihnF0" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/globalive-no-ad-hoc-exceptions/article1377974/">an editorial piece</a> in yesterday's <span style="font-style: italic;">Globe & Mail</span>.<br /><br />As stated the last time <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">DTW</span> visited this dispute, more twists and turns seem likely. We will continue to watch developments with interest.<br /><br />In the meantime, Mr. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">Sawiris</span> has expressed an interest in participating in the telecoms market of another developed economy. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">TeleGeography</span> <a id="aptureLink_DUsz4PPnrT" href="http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=31133&email=html">reports</a> that the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">Orascom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">Telecom</span> Chairman is eyeing France's <a id="aptureLink_lyOjG80dqt" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bouygues%20T%C3%A9l%C3%A9com%20%28company%29"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">Bouygues</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">Telecom</span></a>. A tie-up with the French operator would make sense the said an anonymous <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">Orascom</span> official, adding: "It would reinforce our presence in the Mediterranean, improve our roaming possibilities, there would be many synergies." Watch this space. Will Egypt's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">Sawiris</span> continue to make inroads into Europe's highly developed and competitive telecoms markets?DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-41382153905282713522009-11-26T11:48:00.021+00:002009-11-27T02:20:29.496+00:00WiMAX set to drive broadband growth in Sri Lanka?<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkHR86rA8hLFSObeTNCyrVxd5GldKt52XUAS1ZhY1-uUZEf8DQzi1OGOeqTpigPHiS5XwFMgxpefJMAmCH04NUHd2YaG-T6KvKB6KL3mqpujkJhsG-72y1dSBUu1sGjnqjEQ60yTofwlb-/s1600/About+Us_clip_image002_0000.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 244px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkHR86rA8hLFSObeTNCyrVxd5GldKt52XUAS1ZhY1-uUZEf8DQzi1OGOeqTpigPHiS5XwFMgxpefJMAmCH04NUHd2YaG-T6KvKB6KL3mqpujkJhsG-72y1dSBUu1sGjnqjEQ60yTofwlb-/s400/About+Us_clip_image002_0000.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408600988133975154" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Sky Network: <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">WiMAX</span> offering set to shake up <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Lanka's</span> broadband market?</span><br /></span></div><br />News items from <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Lanka's</span> mobile market have caught the eye of <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span></span> a few times of late. Most recently, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">DTW</span> <a id="aptureLink_TPtZKsCryU" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/10/sri-lanka-etisalat-entry-to-drive-even.html">asked</a> whether the arrival of the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">UAE's</span> <a id="aptureLink_yqkPQLJk4s" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Etisalat"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Etisalat</span></a> as a player on the island nation's cellular scene would cause price competition to become even fiercer. It was noted that a sustained price war has been eroding tariffs and weakening <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">cellcos</span>' profitability over the last four years. Since then, further worrying figures from the country's telecoms sector have been released.<br /><br />On November 11<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">th</span>, for example, Reuters <a id="aptureLink_qVCK59sr4i" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/telcommunicationsServicesSector/idUSCOL49071020091111?rpc=21">reported</a> that market leading <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">MNO</span> <a id="aptureLink_LxAnuIWtdQ" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialog%20Telekom">Dialog <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Telkom</span></a> posted a fifth straight quarterly net loss for Q3 2009, disappointing analysts who had predicted the company would break even. Reuters<span style="font-family:monospace;"></span> reports that the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">telco</span>, a unit of Malaysia's <a id="aptureLink_Gh0S2vS2Xf" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiata%20Group%20Berhad"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Axiata</span></a> lost <span style="cursor: pointer;" id="symbol_AXIA.KL_1"></span> 438.9 million <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Lankan</span> rupees (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">USD</span> 3.83 million) in the quarter which ended on September 30<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">th</span>. As well as margins being squeezed by fierce competition, the Reuters piece traces a link between between this loss and profit remaining elusive at Dialog <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Telekom's</span> broadband and direct-to-home satellite TV operations.<br /><br />That's the latest from the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Lankan</span> mobile market. What, though, of the country's incumbent <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">wireline</span></span> operator, <a id="aptureLink_bhMBUXZGLD" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri%20Lanka%20Telecom"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Lanka</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Telecom</span></a> (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">SLT</span>)?<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">SLT</span>, which was part-privatised in 1997, hit the headlines this week for its efforts to improve the availability of its services in the country's Northern and Eastern provinces, the areas affected by the on-and-off <a id="aptureLink_sTUMb3mmml" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri%20Lankan%20Civil%20War">conflict</a> between government forces and the <a id="aptureLink_CYv01retFM" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation%20Tigers%20of%20Tamil%20Eelam">Tamil Tigers</a>, which ended earlier this year after twenty-six long years.<br /><br /><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">Harshini</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">Perera</span> of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">Lanka's</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">Daily News</span> <a id="aptureLink_kmnmEmNEKO" href="http://www.dailynews.lk/2009/11/26/bus02.asp">writes</a> that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">SLT</span> has addressed the need to improve its services in these areas by expanding its copper and fibre access networks, installing new exchanges and the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">CDMA</span> base stations.<br /><br />With a view to improving its broadband offering across the <span style="font-style: italic;">whole</span> island, <a id="aptureLink_ARMtKVWZTy" href="http://www.skynetwork.lk/">Sky Network</a><span id="lblNewsBody">, </span>a subsidiary of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">SLT</span>, will, according to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">Lanka's</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">Daily Mirror</span>, be <span id="lblNewsBody">providing the </span><a id="aptureLink_oOWUUkdeVb" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wimax"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">WiMAX</span></a><span id="lblNewsBody"> services to parts of the country where <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">ADSL</span> services are not offered. The <span style="font-style: italic;">Daily Mirror</span> reports that the venture will commence operations in March 2010 and will initially provide services to Colombo, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">Gampaha</span> and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">Kalutara</span> Districts. </span> <p>It will be interesting to watch for the impact this <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">WiMAX</span> offering has once launched. Australian telecoms research company <a id="aptureLink_6XZZyhx8dE" href="http://www.budde.com.au/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">BuddeComm</span></a>'s <a id="aptureLink_ILMtqrkMzT" href="http://www.budde.com.au/Research/Sri-Lanka-Internet-Market.html"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">Lanka</span> Internet Market report</a> indicates that Internet access and other forms of data services have lately been starting to take off in the country, but that coverage and accessibility remain limited, with user penetration estimated by the <a id="aptureLink_sSehKxSRVJ" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International%20Telecommunication%20Union"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">ITU</span></a> to be at around 6% by the end of 2008. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">Buddecomm's</span> report contends that early moves to offer broadband Internet in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_47">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_48">Lanka</span> have met with only limited success, <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_49">albeit</span> with some promising signs of growth in 2008-09. The report notes that early activity in the wireless broadband segment of the market has not yet translated into significant subscriber numbers.</p><p>2010 looks to the year during which it will become apparent whether wireless access technologies will contribute significantly to the growth of broadband services in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_50">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_51">Lanka</span>.<br /></p>DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-70676656595117400812009-11-25T09:14:00.044+00:002009-11-26T14:47:45.828+00:00South Africa's Telkom: a fighting chance?<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWkq94SKR9cwTnHI6cRD3_oLBZYelvBh6DqHXmUvrwEL4O6dBRDaCsevNLJBik1Uh4M2ctB3Kt3BZ9dsJ2ZDWK0rMB6-tADQk2zmGMZQYU36NIDCCCf6Y9dwqWCIJt1gScIB8EM01lP8gH/s1600/telkom_store_front.JPG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWkq94SKR9cwTnHI6cRD3_oLBZYelvBh6DqHXmUvrwEL4O6dBRDaCsevNLJBik1Uh4M2ctB3Kt3BZ9dsJ2ZDWK0rMB6-tADQk2zmGMZQYU36NIDCCCf6Y9dwqWCIJt1gScIB8EM01lP8gH/s400/telkom_store_front.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408042786637751074" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:78%;"><span style="color: rgb(204, 102, 0); font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Telkom</span> Direct stores: a vital channel to market as the company faces challenging times?</span></span><br /><br /></div> <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span></span> is picking up lots of chatter today about <a id="aptureLink_aFUCn8gZ9H" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telkom%20SA"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Telkom</span></a>, the incumbent <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">wireline</span> operator of South Africa. This started when this morning's daily roundup from <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">TeleGeography</span> <a id="aptureLink_t2Kwy2BiiT" href="http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=31103&email=html">included the news</a> that the company is planning to re-enter the mobile space in 2010 after only a brief period with no cellular presence.<br /><br />Until almost exactly one year ago, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Telkom</span> <span class="article_body">and </span><a id="aptureLink_SX7pXsmpU9" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Vodafone</span></a><span class="article_body"> had each owned 50% of </span><a id="aptureLink_UasRun43Ng" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodacom"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Vodacom</span></a><span class="article_body">, the pan-African mobile operator with 35 million customers in South Africa, Tanzania, Lesotho, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Earlier this year, the UK-headquartered mobile giant secured a controlling interest in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Vodacom</span> with the purchase of an additional 15% stake from <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Telkom</span>. </span><span class="article_body">The remaining 35% owned by the South African incumbent was listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and unbundled to the company's shareholders.<br /><br />When plans for this transaction were first announced late last year, Lloyd <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Gedye</span> of South Africa's <span style="font-style: italic;">Mail & Guardian</span></span><span class="article_body"> </span><a id="aptureLink_McUWb8BD9a" href="http://www.mg.co.za/article/2008-11-06-telkom-offloads-vodacom">reported</a><span class="article_body"> the stated rationale for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Telkom's</span> sale of its stake in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Vodacom</span> and noted that </span><span class="article_body">many analysts "had expressed skepticism at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Telkom's</span> ability to make a success of going it alone in the mobile space and have questioned how <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Telkom</span> will survive without the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Vodacom</span> cash cow."<br /><br />Back in November 2008, then, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Gedye</span> wrote that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Telkom</span> CEO Reuben </span><span class="article_body">September was arguing that the deal would unlock significant value for the company's shareholders because its fixed-line business had "been undervalued while it clung on to its 50% stake in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Vodacom</span>".<br /><br /></span>How much validity is there in that notion of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Telkom's</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">wireline</span> property being undervalued? The notion is, at the very least, open to question according to <a id="aptureLink_0I8u1QeIyc" href="http://www.ovum.com/news/euronews.asp?id=8281">An Ovum note</a><span class="article_body"> issued this week in response to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Telkom's</span> announced plans to roll out its own mobile services. Ovum examine the background to this strategy and observe that fixed-line penetration </span><span class="article_body">(currently under 9%) </span><span class="article_body">is continuing to fall in South Africa so "mobile is clearly the communication mode of choice, and this is where [Telkom] needs to be for its customers."<br /><br />However, the note continues, establishing a new mobile operation in South Africa won't be easy, as mobile penetration is already above the 100% mark and because Telkom will be competing with two large, well-established players in Vodacom and </span><a id="aptureLink_AlN4bXG4a6" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MTN%20Group">MTN</a><span class="article_body">.<br /></span><span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><a font="" class="EuroView_Article"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span></span></a></span></span></span></span>A third mobile operator, <a id="aptureLink_zkOU4drhbB" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell%20C">Cell C</a>, has achieved a 15.57% share (according to <a id="aptureLink_GtdhvGhuAn" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">WCIS</span></a>) of the country's mobile market since its commercial launch in late 2001. For other mobile service providers, South Africa has offered a very challenging competitive environment. Back in March, in <a id="aptureLink_J5kQiT6gaZ" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/03/africa-of-india-which-will-be-first-to.html">an article on the prospects for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">MVNOs</span> in both Africa and India</a>, <span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span></span> noted that <a id="aptureLink_OhA9Q9HSU9" href="http://www.virginmobile.co.za/">Virgin Mobile South Africa</a> had failed to capture even 1% of the country's mobile subscriptions by the end of 2008. The significance of the recently-launched <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">CDMA</span> mobile offering from <a id="aptureLink_L2pDQlMEG1" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neotel"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">Neotel</span></a>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">Telkom's</span> principal challenger in the fixed-line arena, remains to be seen.<br /><br />While Ovum's note politely points out the level of challenge facing <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">Telkom's</span> proposed new mobile offering, others have responded with far less restrained language. An <a id="aptureLink_8pRzLKLy3C" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/technology-media-telco-SP/idUSGEE5AN0E620091124?rpc=21">article by <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">Tiisetso</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">Motsoeneng</span> of Reuters</a> today quotes one analyst who certainly pulls no punches.<br /><br />"To be targeting the retail market in that industry, I think it will be suicide for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">Telkom</span>," Jan <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">Meintjes</span>, an analyst at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">Gryphon</span> Asset Management said. "I fail to see how a converged strategy of fixed and mobile is going to be earning significant margins," <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">Meintjes</span> said. "Unless they can show to the market that there's a specific niche that they're targeting and how they can exploit that in terms of earning margins on that business that will give them an accepted ROE on their capital expenditure, I don't see how that can be value enhancing."<br /><br />The Ovum note, however, reminds us that in South Africa, <span style="font-size:100%;"><a font="" class="EuroView_Article"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">Telkom</span> claims not to be starting a mobile network operation from scratch. The note points out that the group already has fixed core network assets, which are used by both <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">Vodacom</span> and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">MTN</span> for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">backhaul</span>, and an established channel to market through over 134 <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">Telkom</span> Direct shops. Ovum contend that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">Telkom</span> can choose to "develop a new brand and associated lifestyle concept to target some of the high-spending customers". Also, the Ovum note continues, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">Telkom</span> could potentially have greater appeal to enterprise customers due to an ability to bundle services across fixed and mobile networks.</a></span><br /><br />Lloyd <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">Gedye's</span> article late last year indicated that another use of the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_47">Telkom's</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_48">Vodacom</span> windfall might be to <span class="article_body">acquire a number of new mobile licences in numerous African countries. These would be in addition to the company's existing interest in Nigeria. </span><a id="aptureLink_ARP6McGVvn" href="http://www.itweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=28369:hedberg-heads-to-multilinks&catid=118:financial&Itemid=66">According to Candice Jones</a> of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_49">ITWeb</span>, however, <a id="aptureLink_ItCzVOcGzN" href="http://www.multilinks.com/">Multi-Links</a>, the Nigerian <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_50">telco</span> in which <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_51">Telkom</span> has had a controlling interest since 2006, "is in dire straits, knocking <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_52">Telkom's</span> annual results set with a R1.7 billion net loss."<br /><br />Let's see if this difficult experience discourages <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_53">Telkom</span> from further international expansion. My sense all this year is that African mobile markets are more likely to consolidate than they are to offer rich opportunities for new entrants.<br /><br />While mobility in South Africa offers a new source of revenue for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_54">Telkom</span>, Ovum argue that <span style="font-size:100%;"><a font="" class="EuroView_Article">any new revenue streams from mobile - or from enhanced <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_55">ICT</span> services currently being developed - "are unlikely to significantly bolster its financials in the near term." Of more immediate concern, Ovum contend, is <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_56">Telkom's</span> rising cost base. Ovum's note expresses the belief that </a></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><a font="" class="EuroView_Article">by implementing best-practice approaches in its own transformation, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_57">Telkom</span> is giving itself a fighting chance in the challenging times ahead of it.</a></span>DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-79557855619815904962009-11-18T03:25:00.013+00:002009-11-21T17:30:18.735+00:00Unsurprising news of the week<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg054JlkF-iGZP_Th_LE5NMoyuc7Ej3BpFiIYB8z7L5mzAZOVGSGPlIpcfpZffeUiB1suwmPN6C3Ei3nHMiAQVXc1jv2hvKe9lZc6eGB1vGlmAkOWrybz-sJxfCmi9nvP2JC-TJq-8P9WbQ/s1600/a-raja-1_ts024.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 254px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg054JlkF-iGZP_Th_LE5NMoyuc7Ej3BpFiIYB8z7L5mzAZOVGSGPlIpcfpZffeUiB1suwmPN6C3Ei3nHMiAQVXc1jv2hvKe9lZc6eGB1vGlmAkOWrybz-sJxfCmi9nvP2JC-TJq-8P9WbQ/s400/a-raja-1_ts024.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5406238418394672818" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:78%;"><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-style: italic;">India's Communications & IT Minister: summoned to explain falling revenues at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">BSNL</span></span></span><br /></div><br />To my mind, the least surprising news item so far this week comes from <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Mansi</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Taneja</span> of India's <span style="font-style: italic;">Business Standard</span>, who <a id="aptureLink_JMPV2stXbD" href="http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/bsnl-vavasi-talks-for-zain-buy-fall-through/376786/">reports that</a> state-owned Indian state-owned telco <a id="aptureLink_uWmmoKvzDw" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSNL"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">BSNL</span></a> is likely to exit a consortium that has been aiming to acquire a 46% in pan-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">MEA</span> mobile group <a id="aptureLink_jB4F5oaboX" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zain"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Zain</span></a>. According to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Taneja</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">MTNL</span>, the other public sector operator party to the consortium, is also likely to exit since it had agreed to follow <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">BSNL</span>’s lead in the deal.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span></span> has no axe to grind with regard to these two telecoms enterprises, but it won't have escaped the notice of regular readers that this blog has observed some pretty strong criticisms of their performance in their domestic market, most notably in <a id="aptureLink_Osjb1wzODY" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/08/wimax-and-3g-trials-and-tribuations-for.html">an article written in August</a>.<br /><br />It was partly with these criticisms in mind that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">DTW</span> was unsurprised when <a id="aptureLink_YZyTlAuync" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Etisalat"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Etisalat</span></a> rather than <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">BSNL</span> prevailed in the scramble to acquire the <a id="aptureLink_R32hpFsL17" href="http://www.tigo.lk/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Sri</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Lankan</span> mobile operator</a> previously owned by <a id="aptureLink_4xYj47GcjB" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millicom"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Millicom</span> International Cellular</a>. It would, then, cause raised eyebrows at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">DTW</span> HQ were <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">MTNL</span> to win what looks to be a hotly contested scramble to buy a controlling interested in Zambia's soon-to-be-privatised incumbent fixed line operator, <a id="aptureLink_15gH1XGVKz" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zamtel"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Zamtel</span></a>. As <a id="aptureLink_edOmkiP2zQ" href="http://www.cellular-news.com/story/40489.php">a recent Cellular News item</a> points out, the list of other interested parties contains some formidable names including <a id="aptureLink_tL45GQg6IY" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orascom%20Telecom%20Holding"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Orascom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Telecom</span></a>, <a id="aptureLink_YQxIjBgMDt" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telkom%20SA"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Telkom</span></a> of South Africa and Russia's pan-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">CIS</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">cellco</span> <a id="aptureLink_a1MV6TEbd7" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VimpelCom"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Vimpelcom</span></a>, which has recently expanded its footprint into Southeast Asia.<br /><br />Lest anyone feel that this blog returning quite regularly to the troubles of India's two major state-owned telecoms enterprises is somehow unwarranted, it is worth noting that concern about their prospects has been expressed in the highest circles in the south Asian country. Monday's <span style="font-style: italic;">Economic Times</span>, for example, <a id="aptureLink_g2flh31hYq" href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/telecom/PM-may-meet-BSNL-top-brass-to-check-plummeting-revenue/articleshow/5226733.cms">reported</a> that <span style="">Prime Minister </span><a id="aptureLink_S1itxdyWIy" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manmohan%20Singh"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">Manmohan</span> Singh</a><span style=""> is likely to meet the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">BSNL's</span> management along with Communications and IT Minister </span><a id="aptureLink_uiLbm9zxYA" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.%20Raja">A. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">Raja</span></a><span style=""> to look into the causes of the company's falling revenues and to find ways to improve its performance.<a id="KonaLink0" target="undefined" class="kLink" style="text-decoration: underline ! important; position: static;" href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/telecom/PM-may-meet-BSNL-top-brass-to-check-plummeting-revenue/articleshow/5226733.cms#"><span style="font-weight: 400; position: static; color: rgb(176, 0, 0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12;" ><span class="kLink" style="font-weight: 400; position: static; color: rgb(176, 0, 0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12;" ></span></span></a></span><br /><span style=""></span><br /><span style=""> </span><span style="">According to the <span style="font-style: italic;">Economic Times</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">BSNL</span> says the loss in net profit and revenue is due to huge wage costs and customers deciding to terminate their fixed line subscriptions. </span><span style="">The article states that the company has been struggling with the problem of landlines being surrendered for years now, due to a combination of the increasing popularity of mobile phone and its own service levels falling below customer expectations. In the past three years, the article reports, 6.3 million landline connections have been terminated.</span><br /><span style=""></span><br /><span style=""> </span>This blog has also documented the company's struggles to capitalise on first-mover advantage in the 3G mobile services space or to take make much of a similar head start with <a id="aptureLink_2qBso2PhCB" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wimax"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">WiMAX</span></a> broadband services.<br /><br />In light of all this, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">DTW</span> remains wary of any claims that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">BSNL</span> makes about ambitions to grow its business into unfamiliar overseas territories.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-19163601163349895232009-11-17T03:33:00.021+00:002009-11-19T13:22:39.883+00:00Orascom Telecom: continued resistance to Canadian market entry and changes at the top<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitrNhCbut8sEOxoSIr2MkGMhH7uVNu73gFR1VELiaXu6zFrJo_Vs21CdY0uW-F-4fg1-P9HBjNKS-D445XuECL32rXC5jNo47s2a1pZG_K6_4rA9iJzqPQe3ZEFbgZW3_ydD-MuFi0-q5z/s1600/shaw.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitrNhCbut8sEOxoSIr2MkGMhH7uVNu73gFR1VELiaXu6zFrJo_Vs21CdY0uW-F-4fg1-P9HBjNKS-D445XuECL32rXC5jNo47s2a1pZG_K6_4rA9iJzqPQe3ZEFbgZW3_ydD-MuFi0-q5z/s400/shaw.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5405801762010836530" border="0" /></a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);font-size:85%;" ><span style="font-style: italic;">Shaw Communications: joining the opposition to Orascom's Canadian market entry</span><br /></span></div><br />A <a id="aptureLink_LBawMlYZNi" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/11/canadas-thirdworldish-policies-to.html">recent <span style="font-style: italic;">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span> article</a> reported on the challenges faced by <a id="aptureLink_wilV3Tu7fF" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orascom%20Telecom">Orascom Telecom</a>-backed nascent Canadian cellco <a id="aptureLink_iT4OTl3R7p" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalive">Globalive Wireless</a> as it seeks to intrude upon what its CEO has described as the "oligopoly" of incumbent players <a id="aptureLink_2j5izOBpIn" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogers%20wireless">Rogers Wireless</a>, <a id="aptureLink_Spr39luqaj" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell%20Mobility">Bell Mobility</a> and <a id="aptureLink_mDvNkUJopW" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telus">Telus</a>. We noted that the Wind-branded operator has fallen foul of foreign ownership despite Orascom Telecom supremo Naguib Sawiris having been, <a id="aptureLink_HwwP4meC2i" href="http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=730ce0fa-16fe-4a44-a9a3-7add73acda21">in the words of Terence Corcoran of the <span style="font-style: italic;">National Post</span></a>, "led... into bidding for spectrum and a major role in the Canadian wireless market" only to have the carpet pulled out from under his company.<br /><br />As debate rages about how poorly consumers might be served by keeping Globalive out of the country's wireless market, Telus, which is estimated by <a id="aptureLink_raGUlkkYeq" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/">WCIS</a> to account for around 29% of Canadian mobile subs, is urging <span class="first-letter">I</span>ndustry Minister <a id="aptureLink_TyG3NouDl4" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony%20Clement">Tony Clement</a> not to overturn the <a id="aptureLink_NoFIJ3gNc3" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian%20Radio-television%20and%20Telecommunications%20Commission">CRTC</a> ruling which has stymied the prospective new entrant's plans.<br /><br />According to Steven Chase, <a id="aptureLink_kkidSaXDIS" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/let-globalive-ban-stand-clement-urged/article1365998/">writing today for the <span style="font-style: italic;">Globe and Mail</span></a>, Telus is arguing that a relaxation of the foreign ownership rules would be unfair "because other companies stayed within existing ownership rules when bidding for frequencies in the 2008 wireless spectrum auction." Telus, which also offers wireline telephony, broadband and TV services, has joined forces with another telco headquartered in Western Canada, <a id="aptureLink_uJAKMV4o7Z" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaw%20Communications">Shaw Communications</a>, to publish an open appeal to Mr. Clement in the press.<br /><br />Chase writes that the two operators are asking the Minister to ignore calls to reverse the October 29th decision by the CRTC. It would send "a very bad message to companies that complied with the Canadian ownership laws as they were required to do in the auction and spent over $4-billion bidding - that the rules can be changed at any time in the game," Michael Hennessy, Telus's SVP of Regulatory and Government Affairs, said in an interview. <p>The CEO of <a id="aptureLink_C9jcXprhjJ" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogers%20Communications">Rogers Communications</a>, meanwhile, <a id="aptureLink_gb0mSLS5PM" href="http://www.canada.com/Rogers+sniffs+Globalive+licence/2227994/story.html">has made it clear</a> how the wireless arm of his business would respond if the Orascom Telecom-backed startup is indeed unable to launch. The market-leading mobile operation would look to acquire the unused spectrum.<br /></p>"Spectrum is a very valuable asset," Nadir Mohamed said last Friday after a speech to the <a id="aptureLink_ue7HVZNR5F" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto%20Board%20of%20Trade">Toronto Board of Trade</a>. "It's the real estate of our business, so Rogers would be for sure interested in picking it up. I'm sure others would be."<br /><br />I sense a few more twists in this tale before it becomes clear what is to become of Orascom Telecom's planned foray into North America. Meanwhile, the overall expansion strategy - of which entry into Canada's surprisingly under-penetrated mobile market was meant to be a part - will continue to be guided by Naguib Sawiris. Orascom Telecom <a id="aptureLink_UzGPw1I683" href="http://www.orascomtelecom.com/files/media_Files/67429895_OTH%20Realigns%20Organization%20To%20More%20Effectively%20Focus%20On%20Growth%20and%20Strategic%20Transformational%20Initiatives.pdf">recently announced</a> changes to the management structure which will see Group COO Khaled Bichara promoted to the CEO role and Sawiris taking on the position of Executive Chairman.<br /><br />"The telecommunication business is continuing to grow and evolve at a rapid pace, and we're reshaping OTH to be a leader in this transformation. Our strategy leverages our core strengths and capitalizes on vastly emerging trends to drive growth and profitability. Khaled is dynamic, energetic and will be able to draw on his... experience... to gear the Group into a more aggressive period of growth and transform OTH into a more innovative, integrated and agile global company," Sawiris said. "I will also remain involved in the businesses with more focus on steering the Group’s strategic growth while guiding and supporting the activities of the senior management team. I believe that the telecom market will see massive consolidation during the coming years, and with the new structure I will be able to devote more time and effort in this direction," he added.<br /><br />With Sawiris now free to focus more sharply on growth opportunities, it will be interesting to see if the group will continue the taste for adventurous enterprises suggested by its decision to invest in North Korea. <a id="aptureLink_5SWWrzz6dC" href="http://www.otelecom.com/Subsidiaries/details.aspx?id=157">Koryolink</a> is a W-CDMA operator in which Orascom Telecom holds a 75% stake. Having launched services in December last year, the company now has around 70,000 subscribers <a id="aptureLink_PIyJQab0CO" href="http://www.cellular-news.com/story/40665.php?s=h">according to Cellular News</a>.<br /><br />For a glimpse inside the secretive and isolated country, this clip about the launch of the Orascom-backed MNO makes interesting viewing, even if the commentary is impenetrable to non-Koreans:<br /><br /><object width="340" height="285"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/CCRSZwcii-A&hl=en_GB&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b&border=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/CCRSZwcii-A&hl=en_GB&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="340" height="285"></embed></object>DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-77753645186654477962009-11-14T06:52:00.011+00:002009-11-14T07:19:58.305+00:00Aptilo Networks positive about prospects for WiMAX in developing countries<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcIa-xvQ8zxjmVDkIZj7j2TW95tdRE6UD1PjODTYf8FoN1dDpT1O3IdDfJ2qthOYuECOKEFK1_8UPLQ1jOmMq9e6yGK-1yCmBZGtnwlKXs9aTc9vYZC8daUM_GK6w33ewq0GBKP9lLTjkg/s1600-h/Johan+Terve-2.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 266px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcIa-xvQ8zxjmVDkIZj7j2TW95tdRE6UD1PjODTYf8FoN1dDpT1O3IdDfJ2qthOYuECOKEFK1_8UPLQ1jOmMq9e6yGK-1yCmBZGtnwlKXs9aTc9vYZC8daUM_GK6w33ewq0GBKP9lLTjkg/s400/Johan+Terve-2.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5403848961894830754" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">Johan Terve, Aptilo Networks:<br />good opportunities for WiMAX in emerging markets</span> </span></div><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span> was a proud media partner of this year's iteration of the annual <a id="aptureLink_F9ao52nQIA" href="http://africa.comworldseries.com/">Africa Com</a> conference and exhibition held in Cape Town. The event concluded on Thursday this week, wrapping up two days of discussions and networking among the continent's telecoms operators and their business partners from the vendor and systems integrator communities.<br /><br />One theme explored in some detail at the conference - via a special breakout session - was the question of to what extent <a id="aptureLink_JsAjRUsOWc" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wimax">WiMAX</a> is gaining traction in Africa.<br /><br />With this in mind, DTW spoke this week with Johan Terve, VP Marketing at <a id="aptureLink_MaPY46q5cb" href="http://www.aptilo.com/">Aptilo Networks</a>, a supplier of pre-integrated management solutions for control of billing, user services and access in WiMAX and <a id="aptureLink_ZVQ8QtUjqR" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wi-Fi">Wi-Fi</a> networks. Aptilo Networks had a presence at Africa Com so we were keen to get a sense of whether this was indicative of an upbeat view of the scale of the WiMAX opportunity in Africa - and across developing countries and emerging markets more generally.<br /><br />For proponents of WiMAX, the emerging markets opportunity may grow in importance - certainly if we are to believe bleak analyses of the technology's ongoing prospects in more developed economies. One such comes from Terry Norman of consulting and research firm <a id="aptureLink_v8l4YVvwhL" href="http://www.analysysmason.com/">Analysys Mason</a>, who in August <a id="aptureLink_DsVjmVwknN" href="http://www.allbusiness.com/media-telecommunications/12805998-1.html">predicted</a> a difficult time ahead for equipment makers.<br /><br />Norman believes that "over the last two or three years, WiMAX has gained a strong foothold in developing countries in which there is a need for broadband, but the fixed infrastructure is poor." He feels, however, that these markets offer insufficient growth potential and size "to sustain continued investment from such heavyweights as <a id="aptureLink_HjMLpMm7Ck" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cisco%20Systems%2C%20Inc.">Cisco Systems</a>, <a id="aptureLink_yci4KcgsGO" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel">Intel</a> and <a id="aptureLink_1hxbrV8WH6" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorola">Motorola</a> without additional sales in the developed markets". Therein lies a problem, argues Norman, because "in the developed markets of Europe and the USA, we see some early signs of a difficult future for WiMAX."<br /><br />One difficulty could be any reluctance on the part of of leading mobile operators to deploy the technology. Terry Norman writes that in developed European markets, operators are almost certainly upgrading their 3G technologies to 4G <a id="aptureLink_vock8lSgCJ" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3GPP%20Long%20Term%20Evolution">LTE</a> in order to match the rising demand for data. Norman draws a connection between leading no leading MNOs hinting that they might adopt WiMAX and the idea that "LTE is imminent."<br /><br />Johan Terve rejects the notion of that it being "too late" for WiMAX in developed markets. Terve feels that such language would suggest that "this is a race with a single winner". He believes the opposite to be true and that both WiMAX and LTE will co-exist just like <a id="aptureLink_qo9uOv5FEZ" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital%20subscriber%20line">xDSL</a> and fiber do in the wired broadband world.<br /><br />While Terry Norman of Analysys Mason was downbeat about the growth prospects for WiMAX in Europe and US but sounding somewhat positive about the case for the technology in emerging markets, some analysts are more cautious even about the latter opportunity.<br /><br /><a id="aptureLink_9DS5V2ZtnR" href="http://www.cellular-news.com/story/40012.php">A Cellular News article published last month</a> asks whether there really is a big market for WiMAX in the developing countries. The article is built around opinions recently expressed by industry watchers <a id="aptureLink_3WU4rw9AYI" href="http://www.ovum.com/">Ovum</a>, who find "that the confluence of several factors including technology cost, coverage, vendor support and service provider choices will limit WiMAX to only a niche technology in the emerging markets, forming part of established fixed and mobile operators' broader broadband access portfolios."<br /><br />Johan Terve responded to this point by saying that "if they mean that WiMAX technology will be niche based on size, then there is an element of truth in that since in the end LTE will be bigger because of its massive support amongst mobile operators" and because "the industry expects LTE to be a replacement technology for 2G/3G mobile phones as well."<br /><br />"The WiMAX market does not have the ambition to be a new mobile phone system", argues Terve. "In terms of pure mobile data technologies for portable laptops and mobile Internet devices," he continues, "the two markets will be more equal, and for the 'Wireless DSL' or <a id="aptureLink_WKAWaazLhY" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customer-premises%20equipment">CPE</a> market WiMAX will probably be larger".<br /><br />Last month's Cellular News article, however, contends that most emerging markets WiMAX operators currently have thousands, or tens of thousands of subscribers, rather than the hundreds of thousands of subscribers that they planned to have at this stage. DTW asked Johan Terve to what degree he is concerned by these modest numbers.<br /><br />"We in the vendor community are always far more optimistic in growth projections than the reality," he answered. "The projections of rolled-out LTE networks and subscribers will most likely have to be revised down in the coming quarters. However, there is a big difference between LTE and WiMAX in that the tier 1 mobile operators already have a huge subscriber base just waiting for more bandwidth [and] disappointed with what the current 3G networks have been able to deliver. This will make the LTE ramp-up quicker than it has been for WiMAX having to deploy from scratch. Essentially all larger WiMAX operators are new to market, including <a id="aptureLink_uPoIoD1RpM" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clearwire">Clearwire</a>, <a id="aptureLink_6oFpihT5Tq" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packet%20One">PacketOne</a>, <a id="aptureLink_dYEPNGdSbr" href="http://www.yota.ru/">Yota</a> and <a id="aptureLink_DDHN8Gs2m7" href="http://www.uqwimax.jp/">UQ</a>. None of them have the luxury of just adding WiMAX technology to existing cell towers. Are we concerned about WiMAX? No, we are seeing signs now within our customer and prospects base that things are really starting to move. One encouraging factor is, for instance, one of the largest operators in India that is currently deploying Aptilo’s solution. This type of operator tends to scale very quickly in terms of subscriber growth. As a company, we are continuing our multi-wireless support (currently Wi-Fi and WiMAX) and have added LTE to our roadmap to be able to cater to all the help operators need in managing their mobile data traffic."<br /><br />Where, then, does Aptilo networks see some of the richest opportunities in Africa and in emerging markets more generally?<br /><br />"We see the greatest opportunities with existing Internet Service Providers and new greenfield challengers in the first phase," says Johan Terve. "We also see a great opportunity with CDMA mobile operators that have hesitated to deploy <a id="aptureLink_846cvpxFUi" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution-Data%20Optimized">EV-DO</a> for broadband data services. Their strategy is to keep developing their voice offering in CDMA and then choose between LTE and WiMAX for data. For them LTE is a heavier fork-lift than for 3G operators and WiMAX has the benefit that it is here now, ready to deploy."<br /><br />Could Terve point to any specific examples of this particular deployment scenario?<br /><br />"We are currently working with one of our Caribbean CDMA mobile operator customers that will continue with their CDMA for voice and build their data broadband on WiMAX," he responded.<br /><br />Aptilo Networks, then, is among those continuing to make positive noises about the value WiMAX may be able to add to the communications landscape of emerging markets and developing countries worldwide. It is likely this theme will be revisited when DTW reports on <span style="font-style: italic;">next</span> year's Africa Com event, and it will be interesting to see how far this view has proven to be accurate by that time.DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-83501672795565478822009-11-07T20:30:00.005+00:002009-11-17T03:42:10.797+00:00Canada's 'thirdworldish' policies to stifle wireless competition?<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiurGW9spA-WABweg_9EU-s4VKkapuQ1gbpcWKr-OPnLct_9aed_yMOH7lG4eAHq2xUrC16RFGYc-bOBIkZBOybv8NZYATmA9tDNYqylOZiF3Otc34id_lVl6cjXl6uObKPGOkIi9V6Dk47/s1600/naguib-sawiris.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 280px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiurGW9spA-WABweg_9EU-s4VKkapuQ1gbpcWKr-OPnLct_9aed_yMOH7lG4eAHq2xUrC16RFGYc-bOBIkZBOybv8NZYATmA9tDNYqylOZiF3Otc34id_lVl6cjXl6uObKPGOkIi9V6Dk47/s400/naguib-sawiris.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5404904490783066850" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 0, 51);">Naguib Sawiris: planning to shake up Canada's wireless market</span><br /></span></div><br />DTW’s <a id="aptureLink_Hmj3u1m30J" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/10/knocked-back-in-sri-lanka-indias-state.html">recent article</a> on international ambitions of India’s two major state-owned telecoms operators mentioned that one opportunity they are considering is the acquisition of a controlling stake in <a id="aptureLink_mVdwlVlJop" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zamtel">Zamtel</a>, the incumbent fixed-line operator in Zambia. It remains to be seen if this joint bid from <a id="aptureLink_J5RyWzlTAI" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSNL">BSNL</a> and <a id="aptureLink_A8J03DfuSa" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahanagar%20Telephone%20Nigam%20Limited">MTNL</a> will succeed and it does look as though some formidable players are also interested.<br /><br />According to <a id="aptureLink_DNCdrTosLL" href="http://www.cellular-news.com/story/40489.php">a recent Cellular News article</a>, other interested parties include <a id="aptureLink_gM2dG8D9Ku" href="http://www.telecelglobe.com/">Telecel Globe</a> (a subsidiary of <a id="aptureLink_iyJofh313u" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orascom%20Telecom%20Holding">Orascom Telecom</a>), <a id="aptureLink_dV8jkuiOv4" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telkom%20SA">Telkom</a> (South Africa’s incumbent fixed-line operator) and Russia’s increasingly expansionist <a id="aptureLink_KaKdLo7tMu" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VimpelCom">Vimpelcom</a>, all of which, the article states, officially began due diligence this week.<br /><br />Interest in Zamtel is by no means the biggest recent news item about Orascom Telecom and might well have escaped the notice of North American readers whose attention has probably been drawn more readily to the challenges the Egyptian firm is facing in Canada.<br /><a id="aptureLink_9OiNwP6FS6" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalive"><br />Globalive Communications Corp.</a> of Toronto was established in 1998, since which time it has offered competitive long distance plans. Ten years later, the company successfully made a purchase in <a id="aptureLink_6OF58VpYtF" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry%20Canada">Industry Canada</a>'s radio spectum auction, which paved the way for the creation of a challenger - Globalive Wireless - for the country's established mobile operators, including <a id="aptureLink_4w7fqp9OJY" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telus%20Mobility">Telus Mobility</a>, <a id="aptureLink_H5CTX77jWe" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogers%20Wireless">Rogers Wireless</a> and <a id="aptureLink_KCVWpFvyHy" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell%20Mobility">Bell Mobility</a>. The joint efforts of these three major carriers and regional players such as <a id="aptureLink_kstf9LjhNB" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SaskTel">SaskTel</a> have failed to drive national mobile penetration beyond 66.65% according to <a id="aptureLink_JQmpiysI2a" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/">WCIS</a>. This seems very low for a <a id="aptureLink_PdgOIX3LMC" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G8">G8</a> country that <a id="aptureLink_SmWrxBh5pp" href="http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres08_e/pr520_e.htm">ranks among the world's top ten trading nations</a>. In <a id="aptureLink_MHPEjARKO4" href="http://www.huawei.com/publications/view.do?id=5703&cid=10549&pid=61">an interview</a> for <a id="aptureLink_LJ0HDL8fjf" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huawei">Huawei</a>'s <a id="aptureLink_Ag0MHQPwS1" href="http://www.huawei.com/publications/PublicationsIndex.do?pid=61"><span style="font-style: italic;">Communicate</span></a> magazine earlier this year, Bell Mobility CTO Stephen Howe attributed this state of affairs to three factors: the relatively late licensing of digital wireless spectrum in Canada; Canada' s huge geographical area; the country's robust and unlimited-usage wireline networks.<br /><br />Globalive Wireless, backed by Orascom Telecom and which had earlier this year <a id="aptureLink_To5dR0URie" href="http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2009/08/10/globalive-to-launch-canadian-wireless-services-as-wind/">announced its intention</a> to launch services under the <a id="aptureLink_x86ylpX3Mm" href="http://www.windmobile.ca/">Wind</a> brand familiar in Italy and Greece, has been led by CEO Ken Cambpell <a id="aptureLink_PQLiZyEEWS" href="http://www.globalive.com/?p=126">since October 2008</a>. Cambell, whose former roles include a stint running the <a id="aptureLink_6fjumZdmN1" href="http://www.bitegroup.net/">BITĖ Group</a>, the <a id="aptureLink_Xpy5a1uMfa" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone">Vodafone</a> partner network in Lithuania and Latvia, would take issue with Stephen Howe's explanation for Canada's status as a wireless industry laggard. <a id="aptureLink_00zK1bGQdO" href="http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2009/10/31/bgr-sits-down-with-wind-ceo-ken-campbell/">Speaking with Michael Bettiol of <span style="font-style: italic;">Boy Genius Report</span> last month</a>, Campbell lays the blame squarely with the country's wireless carriers:<br /><br />"Here we’ve got a situation where we pay twice as much as they do in the US, our minutes of use are half of what they are in the US, and wireless penetration is at 65%. Clearly it is a market that is under-developed and where customers simply overpay. The other thing is that in Canada our customer saturation numbers are extremely low. We’ve got a very disenfranchised and very frustrated customer base that is really ripe and in need of competition. The other thing you should know is that this country is dominated by three carriers, but if you look regionally, it is typically two carriers that dominate regional markets. Canada is effectively an oligopoly and in many regions pretty much a duopoly. There is definitely an opportunity with consumers and the numbers speak for themselves."<br /><br />If, as Michael Bettiol contests, Canadians have "long craved for a new wireless carrier to bust onto the scene and break up what is often described as the anti-competitive practices of [the] incumbents", there must surely be much excitement in the country about the market debut of Wind.<br /><br />For now, however, any excitement must be deferred a while. Globalive Communications has been in a state of limbo since late last month, when the <a id="aptureLink_20gfuukmIP" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian%20Radio-television%20and%20Telecommunications%20Commission">Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission</a> ruled that the company is effectively under the control of its Egyptian-based financial backer (Orascom Telecom) and is therefore in breach of rules on foreign ownership and control. <p>Terence Corcoran of the <span style="font-style: italic;">National Post</span> <a id="aptureLink_ahiFPDq0w0" href="http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=730ce0fa-16fe-4a44-a9a3-7add73acda21">despairs</a> of the resulting "wireless mess":</p> <p>"Globalive Wireless has just pumped more than half a billion dollars into the Canadian economy. That includes paying Ottawa $442-million last year for the right to new wireless spectrum, cash now already spent by the federal government stimulating road work in Saskatchewan and writing giant cheques to constituents in Nova Scotia," writes Corcoran, who also notes that "Globalive has also invested another hundred million or more preparing a new Canadian wireless network".<br /></p> <p>"Having taken Globalive's money", Corcoran continues, "Canada is now telling the company the deal is off."</p><p>Corcoran argues that the large spectrum auction fees collected by the Canadian Government would have been far more modest had the participation of Orascom Telecom supremo Naguib Sawiris not been authorised in the first place. Corcoran says that Sawiris has every right to feel mightily aggrieved:<br /></p> <p>"Whether or not it's possible to sue Ottawa over this thirdworldish policy switch and bureaucratic camel-trading, complete with secret meetings and rule-bending approval processes, it certainly looks like Globalive and its owner, Mr. Sawiris, have a case of some kind, politically and morally, if not legally. Ottawa led Globalive into bidding for spectrum and a major role in the Canadian wireless market, and then it pulled the carpet out from under the company.</p> <p>This wrangle is a fascinating one for me. In the course of my work, I have spent considerable time networking with telecoms executives from Europe, North America and the Middle East who make their living running operations in less developed countries. I have lost count of the number of times I've heard (doubtless justified) complaints about the complexities and pitfalls of doing business in such markets - regulatory agencies that can be erratic and less than even-handed; taxation policies which stifle growth and innovation; foreign ownership rules which can prove limiting. It is with interest, then, that I read of a company rooted in Egypt encountering in Canada some of the problems I usually hear attributed to much less affluent and developed societies.</p>DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-35621271684915349572009-10-27T04:14:00.024+00:002009-11-03T07:29:36.854+00:00Knocked back in Sri Lanka, India's state sector telcos continue to eye international expansion opportunities<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN_hitcqylgeFi4lVRQs8ubBnhL9t-jRSxl2Ip6p6m71-SIsxON9j5t-tGad2luGbqe_e30il7gi447fCFNL9W4iZ-L2jn0SYBh22THizRSv2SmJ4ZxaV6YlCxn7e18SAW7THVtq3dpWBk/s1600-h/BSNL.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 280px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN_hitcqylgeFi4lVRQs8ubBnhL9t-jRSxl2Ip6p6m71-SIsxON9j5t-tGad2luGbqe_e30il7gi447fCFNL9W4iZ-L2jn0SYBh22THizRSv2SmJ4ZxaV6YlCxn7e18SAW7THVtq3dpWBk/s400/BSNL.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5399556125765239090" border="0" /></a><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">BSNL: global ambitions</span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">?</span><br /></div><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">DevelopingTelecomsWatch</span> has followed, with some interest, suggestions that India's two major state sector telecoms operators - <a id="aptureLink_pg4hJV43Gx" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSNL">BSNL</a> and <a id="aptureLink_WW6OwwYR5p" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahanagar%20Telephone%20Nigam%20Limited">MTNL</a> - might be aiming to become international players.<br /><br />In September, this blog went on <a id="aptureLink_aXlvnz2Ge4" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/09/m-mystery-tour-zain-tigo-sri-lanka.html">a meandering tour of emerging markets M&A rumours</a>, during which it was mentioned that BSNL's bid for <a id="aptureLink_FGIlFk1OzZ" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millicom">Millicom International Cellular</a>'s <a id="aptureLink_IWMqYcFsRd" href="http://www.tigo.lk/">Sri Lankan MNO</a> had been unsuccessful. Tigo Sri Lanka, <a id="aptureLink_IKWbLBk73G" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/10/sri-lanka-etisalat-entry-to-drive-even.html">as reported more recently here</a>, was eventually acquired by <a id="aptureLink_I4CfMAQWY3" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Etisalat">Etisalat</a> of the UAE, in a move which prompted some analysts to express fear for the profitability of the island nation's other mobile operators. These commentators have noted that Etisalat tends to compete fiercely on price when coming late to a cellular market.<br /><br />In the same September M&A tour, DTW also quoted industry watchers who were warning both BSNL and MTNL to steer clear of reported attempts to acquire a stake in Kuwaiti-owned pan-MEA mobile group <a id="aptureLink_e4g4mJTCFy" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zain">Zain</a>. A <a id="aptureLink_i321qZuVP1" href="http://www.livemint.com/2009/09/15000541/BSNL-baulks-at-Zain-splurge.html"><span style="font-style: italic;">Mint</span> article by Shauvik Ghosh</a> was referenced, in which an anonymous analyst said that BSNL would be advised not to purchase a stake in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">Zain</span>. "<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">BSNL</span> has a lot of cash on its books but it lacks the ability to execute," said the mystery man. Not shy of the odd split infinitive, the unknown analyst said "Africa is not a market for an operator to just add some revenue to its balance sheet. They have to first show that they can execute in India with the opportunities already in front of them like broadband and 3G before they can venture into bigger game like <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">Zain</span>." A <a id="aptureLink_Vf23mcmLK2" href="http://developing-telecoms.blogspot.com/2009/08/wimax-and-3g-trials-and-tribuations-for.html">previous DTW article</a> discussed at some length the view that the two public sector telcos have perhaps not yet demonstrated that ability to "execute in India" to anything like a satisfactory degree.<br /><br />There is evidence, though, from as recently as mid-October, that BSNL and MTNL have not been deterred by such criticism and that the two companies continues to investigate both the Zain opportunity and other potential foreign adventures.<br /><a id="aptureLink_sToy4bFNTQ" href="http://www.business-standard.com/373324/"><br />Writing on 15th October</a>, Mansi Taneja of the <span style="font-style: italic;">Business Standard</span> reports that a consortium led by Delhi-based <a id="aptureLink_ROkwEhZ6Lw" href="http://www.vavasi.com/">Vavasi Group</a> is in discussions with both BSNL MTNL for a majority stake in a special purpose vehicle that is being formed for a bid for Zain. <p>Taneja quotes "a top source close to the consortium" who has said: "Our talks with BSNL and MTNL are on track, but we don’t have any exclusivity contract with them. We are also holding informal discussions with other telecom companies, including <a id="aptureLink_9d1YZtlScI" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%20Mobile">China Mobile</a>, in case talks with BSNL and MTNL do not fructify."</p><p><span style="font-style: italic;">(note to self: attempt to use the word 'fructify' in conversation this week)</span><br /></p><p>Is it unfair on the two Indian operators to venture the suggestion that the giant Chinese cellco might be a far more powerful player to have involved in an audacious bid to acquire operations and subscribers across Africa and the Middle East? Way back in 2002, the Chinese operator stole <a id="aptureLink_Jc6y5xuqaM" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone">Vodafone</a>'s crown as the world's leading mobile operator in terms of subscriber numbers. Vodafone was subsequently seen to stake out its credentials as the world's largest cellco by revenues. Finally, in September this year, this accolade <a id="aptureLink_bQCR6lO4R4" href="http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=30189">was also swiped by China Mobile</a>.<br /></p>If the Vavasi Group does turn out to be more impressed by the credential of the world's most gigantically-huge-mobile-operator-by-every-measurement-ever than by what BSNL and MTNL can bring to a bid for Zain, where else might the two Indian operators look for overseas growth opportunities?<br /><br />One possibility, <a id="aptureLink_7mk59V91EB" href="http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/bsnl-mtnl-shortlisted-for-zamtel-buyout/374065/">again aired by the indispensable <span style="font-style: italic;">Business Standard</span></a>, is a much more modest foray into Africa, namely the acquisition of a majority stake in <a id="aptureLink_a0owWm1cFt" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zamtel">Zamtel</a>, the state-owned incumbent telco of Zambia, which competes in the mobile space and is the monopoly fixed-line operator. On 15th September, the Government of the landlocked southern African country <a id="aptureLink_jE1FL1CXSh" href="http://www.businessesforsale.com/ft2/The-Government-Of-The-Republic-Of-Zambia.aspx">announced its intention</a> to part-privatise the telco through the sale of up to 75% of the company’s equity. Industry watchers <a id="aptureLink_YNZZGPQ9pg" href="http://www.budde.com.au/">Buddecomm</a>, in their <a id="aptureLink_yknGPucHPe" href="http://www.budde.com.au/Research/Zambia-Telecoms-Market-Overview-Statistics.html">Zambia profile</a>, describe the country's wireline infrastructure as "at a very low level of development, which in turn has impeded growth in the Internet sector." Zamtel's monopoly in this space is set to be threatened, continues the Buddecomm profile, which notes that "the country’s ISPs are rolling out wireless broadband networks, which will also position them as competitors in the telecoms sector once <a id="aptureLink_kqbXReGKbM" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voice%20over%20IP">VoIP</a> is fully liberalised", something which is meant to be "a key component in Zambia's new ICT Policy."<br /><br />The <a id="aptureLink_Kpvno15syh" href="http://www.zda.org.zm/">Zambia Development Agency (ZDA)</a> makes <a id="aptureLink_rFSfDEl8NT" href="http://www.zda.org.zm/234-about-zamtel">a more upbeat assessment</a> of the Zamtel fixed network, claiming that it connects all major population centres and is undergoing a substantial upgrade, with over 80% of switching infrastructure now digital, and DSL capacity being rolled out. The ZDA claims that Zamtel’s primary fixed-wireless network is also being upgraded and expanded, with coverage and capacity expected to more than double within the next twelve months. Zamtel’s secondary fixed-wireless network, based on <a id="aptureLink_sKe5ylxrEo" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wimax">WIMAX</a> technology, is designed to cover the whole of metropolitan Lusaka, and is scheduled to go live during 2010, says the ZDA.<br /><br />In the mobile space, Zamtel lags a long way behind its competitors in terms of market share. The stats, estimated for September 2009 by <a id="aptureLink_YsXXjrYxMi" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/">WCIS</a> look like this:<br /><ol><li><a id="aptureLink_GkVHdrFiqF" href="http://www.zm.zain.com/">Zain Zambia</a> - 72.17%</li><li><a id="aptureLink_OuD2JQ79Hx" href="http://www.mtnzambia.co.zm/">MTN Zambia</a> - 23.12%</li><li>Zamtel - 4.71%</li></ol>Zamtel, then, is struggling to compete effectively against two of Africa's leading mobile groups. There is, however, room for all competitors to grow, with Zambia's mobile penetration rate currently standing at just under 33% according to WCIS. Whether BSNL and MTNL are ideally suited to improving the fortunes of the company, however, could be questioned in light of some of the criticisms aired here about their performance in their home market of India. According to the <span style="font-style: italic;">Business Standard</span>, the two public sector telcos are joined by seven other companies or consortia from in having successfully prequalified to participate in a bid for Zamtel.<br /><br />Should both the relatively modest aspiration of buying control of Zambia's incumbent operator and the rather more grand designs on Zain both come to nought, MTNL and BSNL do appear to have ambitions to establish a presence in other regions.<br /><br />Again, I am indebted to India's <span style="font-style: italic;">Business Standard</span> for an update. According to <a id="aptureLink_2kg3Y0WTEl" href="http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/bsnl-mtnl-eye-russia-europe/374055/%2023%20oct">an article of October 23rd</a>, the two operators, along with the Vavasi Group, are planning to set up new operations in Russian and western Europe. <p>Under this deal, the article states, Vavasi "is acquiring frequency spectrum and licences for Russia and several western European countries" and "the same [special purpose vehicle] that is being formed to acquire a majority stake in Zain will be used to invest in the Russian operations."<br /></p> <p>Confirming the development, a senior Vavasi executive is quoted as having said: "We are in the process of acquiring a licence for the new generation (NG)-1 technology and have applied in Russia and four other European countries."</p> <p>This is where I betray the fact that I am not an engineer by wondering about this "NG-1 technology". What is it? The <span style="font-style: italic;">Business Standard</span> article claims that "NG-1 technology is an alternative to GSM and CDMA and was developed in the US universities" and that "Vavasi claims that the network needs lower capital expenditure as well as operating expenses."</p><p>I'll hold my hands up. This is a new one on me. </p><p align="justify">An inspection of the Vavasi website reveals that NG-1 is a proprietary wireless access technology the company has developed itself and which it claims "understands the need of both rural and urban areas". Impressive sounding claims are also made for the spectrum efficiency and eco-friendly credentials of the technology.</p><p align="justify">NG-1 sounds wonderful - but can proprietary kit from India really prevail against global standards such as WiMAX, HSPA and LTE?</p><p align="justify">Some grand claims, then, are being made about the ambitions of India's two major state sector telecoms companies. Some of these claims seem to be articulated rather more loudly by the Vavasi Group than by the telcos themselves. I wonder how much there is in all of this. Can two operators that have attracted much criticism in their home market really be set to emerge as global players?<br /></p>DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9036756702890771226.post-42708127725145554532009-10-26T07:20:00.032+00:002009-10-28T22:05:04.458+00:00CIS: Belarus set for 3G while Ukraine faces delays?<div style="text-align: center;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4HovQXKOfe98yJH_C8p7xeK8ao-YvFdoUTq3soWHbJpje-QOU8OKUz9ahDXAAV0pEQjKyaqRYD5mT3oqIK3xsN2snjDTgleJSMZLv-hQCJuE5k5KdRpBCS1f8oTA611ADyc4kPqVU7GtS/s1600-h/ukraine.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5397456053372806930" style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; width: 400px; cursor: pointer; height: 188px; text-align: center;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4HovQXKOfe98yJH_C8p7xeK8ao-YvFdoUTq3soWHbJpje-QOU8OKUz9ahDXAAV0pEQjKyaqRYD5mT3oqIK3xsN2snjDTgleJSMZLv-hQCJuE5k5KdRpBCS1f8oTA611ADyc4kPqVU7GtS/s400/ukraine.jpg" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);font-size:78%;" >President vs. Prime Minister: 3G licence auctions to be a casualty of political strife?</span><br /></span></div><p>Political squabbling and paralysed decision-making now looks set to stymie the development of 3G mobile services in of one of Europe's worst-performing economies.</p><p>According to a <a id="aptureLink_SMWOX0nXp6" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">WCIS</span></span></a> estimate, there are just 250,000 W-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">CDMA</span></span> subscriptions in <span style="font-weight: bold;">Ukraine</span>, whose total number of mobile subs stands at around 50.7 million. Just one <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">UMTS</span></span> licence has so far been awarded in the country, and the very low take-up of 3G services probably has a lot to do with the fact that the lone licensee is not one of the leading mobile operators best-equipped to maximise the value of the technology.<br /></p><p>Instead, the single 3G licence was given to state-owned incumbent fixed-line operator <a id="aptureLink_pVQVAb4n5W" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrtelecom"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Ukrtelecom</span></span></a> in late 2005. The use of the word 'given' is quite deliberate here - only one licence was issued and this was handed to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Ukrtelecom</span> without a tender, <a id="aptureLink_wbhjOqBEEZ" href="http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=10183">a move which predictably caused consternation on the part of Ukraine's two leading <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">MNOs</span></a>. It was thought at the time that the point of giving the concession to the public sector <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">telco</span> was to make it a more desirable proposition for potential investors ahead of a planned privatisation. Nearly four years later, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Ukrtelecom</span> is still in state hands.</p><p>As recently as February this year, the <a id="aptureLink_cltVJgFEsI" href="http://www.wcisdata.com/marlin/30000001001/MARKT_EFFORT/marketingid/20001127867?proceed=true&MarEntityId=1256311203815&entHash=10023bb3c52">Global Mobile Daily</a> service from <a id="aptureLink_M9jwsJnGEt" href="http://www.informatm.com/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Informa</span> Telecoms & Media</a> reported that <a id="aptureLink_2vsMNo3C49" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkcell"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Turkcell</span></span></a> was interested in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">the Ukrainian incumbent <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">wireline</span> operator. The Turkish <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">cellco</span> has already established a presence in Ukraine via its controlling stake in </span><a id="aptureLink_RYpji3Aehw" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astelit">Life:)</a>, the country's third largest mobile operator by <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">subcribers</span>. I have read or heard nothing since then about the Turkish company's plans to purchase <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Ukrtelecom</span> so I have to assume that this interest came to nothing. Perhaps a well-informed reader could comment.</p><p>With <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Ukrtelecom</span> having failed to make 3G services a truly mass-market proposition, and mobile penetration having passed the 100% mark some time ago, the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">telco's</span> private sector rivals were presumably looking forward to the opportunity to grow revenues by offering mobile broadband services. The chance to do so, however, now looks in doubt, as Sabina <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Zawadzki</span> of Reuters <a id="aptureLink_dSEoGbHSvX" href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLL11935020091021?rpc=21">wrote last week</a>.<br /></p><p>This is because the Ukrainian President, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Viktor</span></span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Yushchenko</span>,</span> has overturned a Government decision to allocate radio spectrum resources for mobile phone network use, thereby casting doubt on a 3G licence tender scheduled for next month.<br /></p><p>Things certainly move fast in the East European country. It was only late last month that Ukraine's <a id="aptureLink_B5ySaXqON5" href="http://www.nkrz.gov.ua/">National Communications Regulatory Commission</a> <a id="aptureLink_5B9jUnXaXj" href="http://www.cellular-news.com/story/39857.php">announced plans</a> to sell a single 3G licence.</p><p>The President's decree, referring to the spectrum's use by the military, cited the need to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">saferguard</span> Ukraine's defensive capabilities.</p><p>This could, of course, be a quite genuine concern on the part of Mr. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Yushchenko</span>. Those who watch the country's political scene, however, could be forgiven for wondering if the 3G auction might really be a casualty of the poor relations between <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Yushchenko</span> and Ukraine's Prime Minister, </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Yulia</span></span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Tymoshenko</span>, a former ally of the President.</span></p><p><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Ms. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Tymoshenko</span> and Mr. </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Yushchenko</span> have not seen eye-to-eye for some time, with their difficult relationship characterised by some uncomfortable clashes. In August 2008, for example, the President's office accused Ms. </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">Tymoshenko</span> of betraying national interests by not backing Georgia in its conflict with Russia. In January this year, when Russian gas reached Europe via Ukraine after a two week interruption of supplies, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">Yushchenko</span> said the deal clinched by <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">Tymoshenko</span> was a "defeat." Moscow and Kiev had been locked in a prices and debt row that cut supplies to about 20 European countries. As this year unfolded, the Ukrainian Parliament Parliament sacked Foreign Minister <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">Volodymyr</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">Ohryzko</span>, a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">Yushchenko</span> ally, citing his <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">aggresive</span> stance against Russia, and dismissed another <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">Yushchenko</span> ally, Defence Minister Yuri <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">Yekhanurov</span>, over allegations of corruption in his Ministry.</p>With this strife in the background, there exist precedents for Mr. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">Yushchenko</span> blocking proposed transactions favoured by Ms. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">Tymoshenko's</span> Government. Last month, for example, he halted the privatisation of the <a id="aptureLink_qlsekHyMpR" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port%20of%20Odessa">Odessa Port</a> plant two weeks before its auction. <p><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">Yushchenko</span></span> and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">Tymoshenko</span></span> are both expected to run in a presidential election on 17<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">th</span> January, with polls showing the PM would face former premier <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">Viktor</span></span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">Yanukovich</span></span> in a second round. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">Yushchenko's</span></span> popularity ratings are apparently in single digits.</p><p>Perhaps this process will need to play out before Ukraine's mobile operators can expect to get their hands on 3G licences. </p><p><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">MNOs</span> in neighbouring Belarus, meanwhile, have received more positive news about the prospects for mobile broadband there. To date, only second generation mobile services are available from the country's four <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">cellcos</span>. The third-placed player (by market share), <a id="aptureLink_ejhsOpKyS6" href="http://www.life.com.by/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">BeST</span></a>, formerly a state-owned company <a id="aptureLink_pHhruVy9qR" href="http://www.e-belarus.org/news/200807301.html">80% of which was acquired by <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">Turkcell</span> in 2008</a>, <a id="aptureLink_ekhtMyqQ3t" href="http://www.cellular-news.com/story/38772.php">in July awarded</a> Chinese vendor <a id="aptureLink_Nx31yZOiqs" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZTE"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_47">ZTE</span></a> a contract to build a new <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_48">UMTS</span> network. This followed the allocation of suitable spectrum to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_49">BeST</span> by the State Commission for Radio Frequencies (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_50">SCRF</span>). Since the takeover by the Turkish <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_51">MNO</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_52">BeST</span> has adopted the same Life:) branding as the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_53">Turkcell</span>-controlled operator in Ukraine.</p><p>Now, according to the <a id="aptureLink_07UJY6X2zA" href="http://www.belta.by/en/news/econom?id=437431">Belarusian Telegraph Agency</a>, a working group for the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_54">SCRF</span> is supporting the initiative of the Information Technologies and Communications Ministry to allocate <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_55">UMTS</span> radio bands to <a id="aptureLink_DdpvGywT9T" href="http://www.mts.by/"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_56">MTS</span></a> (owned by the <a id="aptureLink_VTYb0sfmGI" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile%20TeleSystems">giant Russian <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_57">cellco</span> of the same name</a>) and <a id="aptureLink_nYQa10jva7" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velcom"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_58">Velcom</span></a>, which is controlled by the <a id="aptureLink_KvSJev9dNG" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobilkom%20Austria%20Group"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_59">mobilkom</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_60">austria</span> group</a>.</p><p>My understanding is that both Belarus and Ukraine have the somewhat underdeveloped <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_61">wireline</span> infrastructure which can offer good opportunities for mobile operators to grow wireless broadband revenues. Whether the economic conditions in both countries will allow for really strong mobile broadband growth, though, remains to be seen. With licensing delays in Ukraine, perhaps it is in Belarus that industry watchers will get the earlier opportunity to track the customer adoption of 3G services in this part of the world.<br /></p>DevTelWatch:http://www.blogger.com/profile/11786491399930723520noreply@blogger.com0